Stoney's He-Man Steeler Haters NFL Playoff Thread ... No Yinzers allowed

What I'm saying, DQ, is that you're in the upper-echelon of thinkers here but I have a hard time believing you think everything just plays out because stats and probabilities dictate so.

A bit of apples to orange, but not really, but look at the Bucks-Ducks the other night. Ohio State led big and Oregon needed quick strikes -- which the stats and probabilities say they're more than capable of doing; no one in the country was better at scoring and scoring fast. Total machine. Look what happened though: Mariota rolled right and threw it and Joey Boza took him to the ground hard and Mariota hurt his shoulder and had to come out for a few plays -- and Hey, America, here's Oregon's freshman quarterback in crunch time of the national championship!

 

"I heard the jury is still out on science..." - Arrested Development

 

If you don't recognize statistics and probabilities how the hell do you bet on sports? It's all if-then.

 

Maybe. Maybe not? I don't know. I won 600 bucks late'ish in the college season on a 4-team upset card. None of the 4 teams should have won, all of them on the road, against much better teams, but they did. I'm a degenerate and know the landscape of college football betting-wise; that doesn't always mean you're going to win. But anyway, I looked at those 4 teams that morning and thought, It's not out of the realm of possibility that all 4 could win. Probably NOT going to happen but what's 2 bucks?

I do recognize stats and probabilities in the context of betting but it's still pretty much all if-then in the grand scheme of things.

 

It's a good question but I would start with 2 feet down with possesion.

 

I don't think anybody is saying it was a sure thing but based on the way things were going, I would have wagered that GB would have gotten at least a field goal. Of course nobody knows for sure.

 

I can also win a hand of poker going all in 2-7 pre flop against pocket aces. I don't like my chances of making money long term doing this.

 

Not what I am saying in the least. But apparently I'm not doing a good job of making my point, so I'll try another tack:

We all know that Green Bay, needing to move the football to keep Dallas from having another chance to score, did just that. As Ricky Bobby said, "That just happened!"

So my question is: What would make the circumstances of a Green Bay possession after a Cowboys score so radically different from those that actually obtained?

 

dq, the last 20 yards are notably different from the preceding 60 in terms of strategy.

I agree with you, the Packers probably score, but it wouldn't be out of the question that Dallas holds them to a field goal and then we go to OT.

Where, of course, the Cowboys win the coin toss, Murray breaks into the clear, he fumbles, a Cowboys lineman picks it up but doesn't fall on it, he laterals to Dez, who drops it, and the Packers pick it up and run it in FTW.

 

Every new thing that happens -- if it's a catch and if they score -- dictates a new course of history.

The parallel is that yeah, probability still factors into things.

But probability doesn't equal "that just happened" even if "that just happened" in this case.

 

Yeah, if the Cowboys get the TD and the 2-pointer, I ain't pondering this stuff. Because I think the circumstances of Green Bay's possession there would be substantially different from those that actually obtained.

 

Scenario I would have enjoyed was Cowboys keeping possession but not scoring a TD, just a FG, 26-24, Green Bay moves the ball -- probability! -- but stalls at, oh, the 39 with 1:40 or so to go. Try a 56-yarder?; but a miss gives the Cowboys great position. Or try to pin a punt with a 2-point lead and hope like hell the defense holds up for the final 90-100 seconds.

Because what makes Green Bay's defense so much more special in this situation, considering Romo and the offense played a pretty strong game?

That scenario would have been fun to see considering 2007 will forever hang over Romo's head till he makes the Super Bowl, or at least the title game.