Mariota or Winston?

I would bet a million dollars that Winston is not out of the league in less than three years. This would require borrowing against my house and future earnings. I would do it.

BDC has nice #HotTake from 1980s sportswriter though.

 

A lottery pick QB is a bust if they are not your starting QB if they are not considered a first string QB by and after the 4th year, probably 3rd.

Next season if RGIII's 4th year. He was ROY but could be a someone's reclamation project after next season. If so, he's a bust. Maybe not a ust of a football player. You hang around the NFL for 5 years, you've made it. But a bust for a top 5 draft choice.

If Winston and Mariota are drafted in the top 6 or 7 and are not starting in 3 and 4 years, they are busts as picks.

 

Mariota hurt his throwing shoulder in the NCG. Supposedly not serious, but I am always suspect when I read "quarterback" and "shoulder injury" in the same sentence, especially when the quarterback isn't known for either superior arm strength or accuracy.

 

First, there is no lottery in the NFL draft, so nobody is a "lottery pick."

Second, you are correct that if a first-round QB isn't your starter in his fourth season, that is a failure (unless he's out due to injury or you got a No. 1 for him in a trade).

Third, it response to this:

If you take a QB in the top 10 picks and he is not a franchise QB, he is a bust. If you don't think a guy has a very good chance of becoming a franchise QB, don't draft him that high. You'll be wasting a choice that could be used on an impact player, not to mention money, and you'll end up still looking for that franchise guy.

 

The question was "out of the league" in Season 4. It rarely happens.

I don't consider Alex Smith a bust and I don't consider him a franchise QB. He was a disappointment for a No. 1 overall pick but he's had a respectable career. Same for Ryan Tannehill. Guys like Kerry Collins come to mind as well.

 

True. But I could see Winston taking the curious route of Josh Freeman.

 

He already has one conspicuous Freemanesque trait.

 

EXACTLY! Being a Bucs fan, that was the first name that popped into my mind, but it did occur to me that people might make that connection.

 

Bucs cut McCown, so they're definitely taking a QB. I thought there could be a chance they surprise everyone and go defense. Guess not.

 

The following is why I made the comparison, and it's the way I see Winston's career playing out. A few flashes of greatness, some peaks and valleys, and then he just fades out. OK, so it won't be in three years. But I don't see him having a long career. If he keeps his nose clean, the organization will put up with some ups and downs, but if he remains the clown he has been, they aren't going to tolerate it for long.

Josh Freeman experience tilts ex-Bucs GM Dominik toward Mariota | Tampa Bay Times

"With Josh, it certainly was a roller coaster," said former Bucs general manager Mark Dominik, now an NFL analyst for ESPN. "He had good years and bad years and some in between, quite frankly. That's something you have to think about and something that stays in the back of your head."

 

Josh Freeman was a stretch as a first round pick, Winston will go first overall. Big difference.

Unless Winston slips out of the first round due to maturity issues like Clowney did.

 

Dominik, maybe Freeman gave you headaches because you DRAFTED A GUY WHO ONLY COMPLETED 59% OF HIS @#$@ING PASSES IN COLLEGE!