Mariota or Winston?

Trading Rivers would be an all-time goof.

 

I clicked on a Yahoo "story" that stated the Chargers traded Rivers to the Texans. Turns out it was some fantasy crap.

 

I wouldn't go that far. He is 33, going into his 12th season, and also into the last year of his contract. If he re-ups, they'll be paying $20 million a year to an aging quarterback entering the last third of his career, on a team that's already lacking firepower in a bunch of areas.
I like Rivers. I think he's one of the most underrated quarterbacks of the past decade. But from a purely analytical standpoint, if the Chargers can get a high No. 1 for him that turns into their quarterback of the future -- and maybe a couple of lower-round picks to sweeten the pot -- it's worth considering.

 

That rumored Titans deal is ridiculous. If you're going to trade a good QB, you need more than a swap of first-rounders.

 

There is no way I trade Rivers unless I am damn sure I am getting the QB I want, and the only way you are getting that is if you get the #1 overall.

 

What are the odds that Winston and/or Mariota will be as good as Rivers? That's the bet the Chargers would be making. It's a very risky one.

 

Not really. You are getting 3-4 more very good years and 1-2 good years from Rivers. He's not great. So it's 4-6 quality years.

Both of these two could be great or very good for 10-12 years and good for 2-3 more. You also have about a 25% chance they will be poor.

 

To answer the question, there's maybe a 5 percent chance that either is as good as Rivers.

 

Sure...

 

If I were the Chargers, I wouldn't trade Rivers. They have a better chance to win with him next year -- and even for the next 3-4 years if they re-sign him -- than either Winston or Mariota, or any other available quarterback. This isn't a very good crop of free agent/draft QBs.
There are those questions, though:
1) Considering the expiring contract, do they want to commit to him for five more years at $20 million per?
2) Do they feel they can win with him this year? Or in the next 3-4 years?
3) Can they get enough in a trade to rebuild a competitive team without a star QB this year?

The answer to at least the last two is probably no. But there's also probably a price that would make the Chargers talk themselves into it. Maybe the first-round pick swap this year, plus next year's No. 1 and a few other picks would be tempting.

 

How many quarterbacks drafted since 2005 in the first round have been better than Rivers?

 

To answer the question, there's maybe a 5 percent chance that either is as good as Rivers.

Ryan, Luck, Roethlisberger, Manning, Rodgers and Newton.

30 drafted

6/30 = 1/5 = 20%

7/30 if you include Flacco

8/30 if you include Flacco and one of Bortles or Bridgewater.