Donald Trump: Come Kiss the Ring

Exactly. If you get 40%, in a two-way race, you're losing in a Reagan/Mondale like landslide.

 

This arithmetic is why Republican voters, and even more the Republican leaders, will coalesce around one of the other contenders, most likely Bush or Walker, by the time New Hampshire votes.

 

I think this is right, and it will likely be Bush. Rubio or Cruz will be fighting for the traditional conservative vote as well.

Christie is most hurt. He was supposed to be the blunt talking regular guy in the race. he, and the everyone else not already mentioned are dead in the water, and will get no traction.

The biggest problem for Bush in a general election against Clinton will be similar to Romney's problem against Obama. It takes away one of our best arguments against our opponent.

Bush can hardly make the argument against Clinton that she's old, from another generation, and part of some dynasty, who doesn't deserve to be handed the Presidency.

Similarly, Romney had a hard time hitting Obama on ObamaCare, based on his record in Massachusetts.

 

Nominating Bush would be colossal mistake for the Republicans.

 

I'm curious why you say that.

 

I can easily see why. If it's Clinton vs. Bush, voters are going to compare, unfairly but humanly, their experiences of the previous administrations of that name.

 

Absent his name, I think he makes for a very appealing candidate.

He'll probably be the nominee. He's more likeable than Hillary.

If it's between the two, and Trump doesn't try an independent run, it will be very close.

 

He excites absolutely no one. His name recognition is strong, but his name is also a huge negative. One of the strongest talking points against Hillary is that she's merely a continuation of the past, and she's part of a political ruling class that's out of touch with the public. That case goes away if Bush is your nominee.

There's more, but that's a good start.

 

Everyone is more likable than Hillary.

 

I understand that, but just based on the other Republicans who are running, Bush seems, well, normal in comparison. Granted, I haven't paid a whole lot of attention to the race yet, but he seems like the one GOP member with the best chance of defeating Clinton. The others seem like huge long shots to non-starters against Clinton.

 

Not buying that. Clinton is an awful candidate. She proved that in 2008. And her already very large negatives are rising.

 

Well, hell, they ALL seem like awful candidates, but that's what we're dealing with.