Ben Carson: Bungling Surgeon

Found this fascinating. Those non-affiliated "independent" voters? Not so much.
Why swing voters are vanishing from US politics

 

This is not The Onion:

Jeb! Promises to Leave You Alone for Two Weeks for Just $25

 

You can argue that most people haven't been paying attention or caring that much, so that's why the polls are swinging wildly up and down. Even in New Hampshire and Iowa, voters are sick of being polled and will say the first name that comes into their heads. That's why Trump continues to lead in almost all national polls. It's inertia.

Of course, you can also very plausibly argue that Trump will be the next President of the United States. That's the beauty of this election campaign so far. Nearly any prediction you have about the outcome can fit the available facts without too much stretching.

 

I think the fluctuations of polls have as much to do with the polls, that people's opinions (who is contacted, how a poll is weighted compared to who actually will vote). But there is also something to be said about "buying into the narrative." Journalists love good stories and I imagine many enjoy being part of that story. You could say there was a similar dynamic about our country electing the first black president, Perot's rise etc.

 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...nment-was-good-clinton-still-well-ahead-.html

-65% of Trump voters think thousands of Arabs in New Jersey cheered the collapse of the World Trade Center, to only 11% who don’t think that happened. Overall 43% of Republicans think that event occurred to 29% who don’t.

-45% of Trump voters want to shut down the mosques in the United States, to only 23% who are opposed to doing that. Overall just 27% of Republicans support that to 45% who are opposed though.

-Finally as long as we were at it we decided we’d ask people if they thought Japanese internment had been a good idea. Among Trump voters 48% say they support the use of internment during World War II, to only 21% who say they oppose it. Overall just 29% of Republicans support that to 39% opposed, and supporters of all the other candidates are against it- 29/33 with Cruz voters, 23/54 with Rubio’s, 12/48 with Carson’s, and 13/56 with Bush’s.

 

You could do similar polls with Dems on issues like 9/11 or vaccines.

It's funny, but let's not pretend it only happens in one party.

 

I would love to see a poll that had two-thirds of the leading Democratic candidate's support base coming out as anti-vaxxers or 9/11 truthers. That'd be a hoot.

You won't find anything close to this no matter how hard you look.

 

Oh, there'd be some, but let's not pretend those populations are equal.

 

39% of Dems couldn't identify Obama as a Christian (page 32):

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/09/12/iranpoll.pdf

In this one, 55% of Dems couldn't identify Obama as Christian:

Scott Walker’s view of Obama’s religion makes him a moderate

Greater than 50% of Dems thought Bush was complicit in 9/11:

A full 22.6% of Democrats said it was "very likely." Another 28.2% called it "somewhat likely."

More than half of Democrats believed Bush knew

It may not match the numbers in LTL's post, but there are plenty of kooks on both sides.

(Anti-vaxxers are in a minority in both parties. The numbers are close, but Republicans are trending more anti-vaxx, while Dems are trending less anti-vaxx, but paradoxically, younger people are more anti-vaxx.)

 

The Obama/Christian one isn't the same -- that's just saying you don't know. It makes you politically unaware but not actively believing something. (Also I think on those kinds of religious questions, "I don't know" is often a substitute for "I don't care and neither should you.")

I'll give you points on the Bush-9/11 one. That's pretty isolated though, and yeah there was some spittle-flying anger on the left in those times. (I think those pollsters called Baron.)

In the main, though, we are taking positions that we've all grown up with as abhorrent and seeing these positions go mainstream. Japanese internment? We're really looking back and saying "Hey, maybe they were onto something"? That's just so insane.

 

I don't know, I think that if you ask people marching down the street carrying pitchforks, if they believe in just about anything, they will tell you, "yes".

Republicans are riled up right now. Between Trump, and the "liberal media" they're trying to "send a message" as much as anything else.

If you asked the same people, the same question last year, or ask them next year, you won't get the same result.

Right now, it's like asking African-Americans right after the OJ trial if they think he did it.

 

I didn't realize there were that many Starmen out there.