Trump cheats at golf - the ONE and ONLY politics thread

I feel like Rubio would beat her like a drum.

 

I meant to add that the headline writer didn't do justice to the actual column.

 

Enthusiasm within the base, while helpful, is not a prerequisite for getting elected President. Richard Nixon comes to mind, and the first Bush, and let's not forget Hillary's husband. Nobody had more enthusiastic supporters than Barry Goldwater unless it was George McGovern.

 

When is the last time Republicans nominated a candidate that excited the base?

 

I've got a bit of a theory about Hillary and the conventional wisdom.

We were told in 2008 that Barack Obama was the one guy who could beat her. He was young, new on the scene, African-American, and was running a hopeful campaign.

Voters didn't reject Hillary. They just gravitated to Obama.

But, is that true? Bernie is old, has been around forever, is white, and is running an angry campaign. Plus, he's a socialist. And, all the enthusiasm is with him. Young people are with him.

Clinton is holding on only because people think she's more electable, and because Bernie has built no support in the African-American community.

But, Hillary has been exposed as unlikeable. Bernie's crowd was chanting "liar" when she appeared on the screen last night.

The party is far more left than we could have imagined. And, Hillary is a terrible candidate and a poor campaigner. People like her less the more they get to know her.

They were able to scare almost everyone else out of running. A credible candidate would have clobbered her. Elizabeth Warren would have crushed her.

The 2010 and 2014 midterms have proven to be her saving grace. The Dems have no bench.

 

The big question is African-American voters. Lots of first-timers who became second-timers who may or may not become third-timers.

 

Reagan. Bush in 2000.

You forget how popular Bush was with evangelicals. He was a born again, who didn't drink, and talked about the Bible, and his faith in a way that was genuine. He was always pro-life.

Bush was establishment for sure, but the base was excited about him, and was especially excited about taking back the White House.

 

That's the thing, right.

Obama turned out voters.

That's why Cruz might be a disaster. People will come out to vote against him. Trump is polarizing. People will come out to vote against him, but he'll also attract new voters, and white, working class voters in places that may give dems fits.

Rubio will get the Republican votes, and I don't see him as someone they can demonize. He looks like a boy scout. Who's going to come out to vote against him -- except for Jeb Bush?

 

Yet Bush was seriously challenged by McCain, who also had his share of enthusiastic supporters. It was a genuine difference of opinion, which I believe is what stimulates enthusiasm most. I think drawn out tough primary contests are good for parties, not bad. People get excited when they think their votes count.

 

I would just like to point out that in some other thread, I long ago predicted that Rubio would be the GOP candidate. After last night's results, I think that's a lock.

 

I feel like Hillary would be a genuinely good president. She's smart, she actually cares about people, she a pragmatist instead of a progressive unicorn fantasy, and though there would inevitably be several ridiculous scandals, the Clintons know how to bend elbows and crack whips and deal with the dirty reality of politics. She'd get shit done.

She is a not a good candidate. Now, if you think the Clintons don't have dirt on Rubio they'd be ready to unleash, you haven't been paying attention to politics for 20 years. All the talk about how Obama was a celebrity is funny, in retrospect. Rubio's story is remarkably similar to Obamas. He would not "crush" anyone in the general. Some of you guys talk in such absolute terms. It would be 52-48 again, with the potential to swing either way. Does Rubio have the GOTV staff and expertise that Romney and McCain did not? That might be what actually makes the difference.

Bernie is because he's projecting a fantasy that's totally impossible. I see zero evidence of how he would actually accomplish the things he says he wants to accomplish.

 

Maybe next Wednesday night it'll be a lock, swingline, but I'd wait for New Hampshire before I got a bet down.