Royal Bank of Scotland to investors: 'Sell everything'

95 million + Americans (and likely much more than that) are not working. Untold million others are severely underemployed. A demographic shift certainly could account for a small portion of that, although the BLS reports each month has painted a picture much different than that, truth be told. Older workers working longer (and they have held up better than young workers in terms of actually being able to find jobs)--not retiring. They put out quite a few reports over the last few years that showed job gains that got put in headlines. ... even though the number of workers aged 25 to 54 actually declined. And it always leaves me scratching my head. The actual BLS reports, actually tell a story far removed from this fantasy that the population is getting older and the reason 95 million plus Americans aren't working is that people are simply retiring. In fact, here is a chart Zero Hedge did after the jobs report in November.



They cherry picked from 2007 as the starting point. The actual jobs reports month after month had broken down to workers aged 55 and older having gained more than 7.5 million jobs over the past 8 years. ... and workers aged 55 and under having lost a cumulative total of 4.6 million jobs since 2007. I read those reports every month, and that has certainly been what I am seeing month after month. With the majority of the new jobs being lower paying service sector jobs replacing what had been higher paying jobs 5, 10 years ago.

It's also much closer to the reality people seem to be living. Of course that is anecdotal, so take it for what it is worth.

It also doesn't address what is easy to see about the workforce participation rate. The number of people receiving disability checks, because their unemployment benefits ran out, has blown up. Disability has become code for "can't find a job that pays more than the disability check." As well, the number of people participating in the SNAP (food stamp) program has exploded. It doesn't take a study -- just common sense -- to know that we are not anywhere near full employment the way the U3 number would suggest. It's a farcical number. Our real unemployment rate is is in double digits -- who knows how high into double digits? Even the U6 number, which is the closest thing to an honest number they have, was at 9.9 percent last Friday. That includes people working part-time because they can't get full-time work -- even though it still ignores many people who would be counted as unemployed if it was simply a matter of, "Who is working at full capacity and who isn't."

 

FYI, stocks gave up those overnight gains into the close. Tesla reports earnings soon. Should be fun.

 

Noted "nut" Jim Grant on TV a half hour ago:

 

He lives about a block away from me. I see him jogging in the mornings sometimes. He doesn't wear the bowtie when he exercises. It may be the only time you will see him without a bowtie. He's a really smart guy, obviouysly. A former journalist, too. ... Baltimore Sun, and had a really popular column for Barron's, when people still read newspapers. Grant's Interest Rate Observer is very well respected -- well, apparently by most people. ... but not including cranberry. It's contrary by nature, but very thorough in its analysis. You can name any reckless behavior or mispricing of risk the markets have seen since the 1980s, and he was out there sounding the horn early. Not just sounding the horn, but spelling out the reasons clearly -- not "ideas," (in cranberry lingo), but tangible reasons for why things were mispriced. He is right a whole lot. Which is why he is well respected. But he's a nut in cranberry's world.

 

The dollar has lost 99 percent of its value since the inception of the Federal Reserve and its monopoly power. For the last 3 decades, it has acted particularly recklessly, creating a series of escalating debt crises that have had, and are continuing to have, worldwide consequences -- and will continue to for years to come -- as the academics you have wedded yourself to, fuck us all.

But anyone who has been critical of that -- for obvious reasons -- is a "nutcase gold bug."

A lot of people who have had their heads in the sand have started waking up to the consequences of all of the consumption that has been pushed forward to reckless degrees. But not you.

You do, however, do dismissive very well. Congrats.