Trump cheats at golf - the ONE and ONLY politics thread

Bush was the favorite and Trump destroyed him as a serious political figure, let alone candidate. Trump has pretty much ignored Rubio until now. What happens when the bully starts grabbing Marco's lunch money. Seeing as how Christie ran him out of the room in New Hampshire, I don't see Rubio coming off as an alpha male against Donald. I don't think he could be the alpha male against Hillary for that matter.

 

Bush knows his stuff, but man, is he just a bore and comes across as a wimp.

 

One step closer to President Trump.

 

An excellent explanation of what we are seeing: Clay Shirky on the why's behind current US Presidential Election cycle - Loose Leaves

 

Speaking as a Republican...

There will never be a President Trump. He may win the nomination but he will be the latest awful Republican nominee to lose in a climate where they should have won.

Trump's mullet coalition of manual labor workers and affluent Tea Party types is not an attractive option for middle-of-the-road Republicans with college degrees. He has no empathy for people struggling.

Neither is Ted Cruz. He gets up there and talks about the Second Amendment, protecting marriage and overturning the ACA on Day One. He can't win a general election, either, because he comes across as so harsh and unrelenting. Having interviewed him a bit, if I may be frank, he's an asshole.

The Democrats have shifted to the left on many issues but many Republican politicians are still in 1994 on their issues.

I came of age in that era as a hard-right type on social issues and economic.

Over the last decade, I don't give a damn who gets married. I'm done fighting the abortion battle even though I'm strongly pro-life. I don't care what other people do on their Sunday mornings. I'll worry about my own house before worrying about what others do. I don't care about guns and the Second Amendment because if someone really wants to kill me badly enough, they'll kill me. I don't like the ACA but people who are struggling having access to affordable health care is not the worst thing in the world.

(Tangent: the people I've met who are obsessed with guns and having pit bulls are the people who appear to have the least amount of assets worth stealing.)

I've also found myself much, much more compassionate towards people who are struggling. Maybe that comes from years as a street reporter. I don't need a Republican candidate to talk about people struggling as much as Sanders and Clinton but they need to acknowledge it and show some damn compassion.

If Trump or Cruz is the nominee, I won't be heartbroken if Clinton wins. I'll just focus on the House and Senate races where I live.

Rubio is the only path for a Republican to win a general election. The longer Kasich and Carson linger in this, the more likely Trump wins and November will mean President-Elect Clinton.

 

Good post, but why do you think this is a climate in which Republicans should win? Whether you choose to credit Obama or not, it's hard to deny that the country is better off than it was eight years ago.

 

Part of it is that Democrats have only had consecutive presidencies when the sitting president died and his VP took over.

And, the Right-Wing Screech Machine has created many, many more "enthusiastic" Republican voters than Hillary has created on the other side.

 

Agreed but Republicans have been terrible in noting that they've been in control of the House from 2011-present while the Dems had it 2007-11, the heart of the recession.

The country is better off as long as you're not a 55 year old professional who needs to find a job. We are a place of multiple Americas -- if you have a college degree and are somewhat ambitious and hard-working, I think you can still write your own ticket. If you're on a high school degree and fairly aimless, it's a hard run right now.

We're in the midst of a market correction right now and I'm uncertain how much that will play into 2016 and the voting public.

It's a good climate because Obama is not running for a third term and Hillary Clinton is the presumptive nominee. She's not fresh and exciting and I cannot see minority or young voters going out of their way to vote for her in a general election.

That should make it palpable for a Republican candidate but it seems the nominee will be Trump, who will join the Angle/ODonnell/Akin/Murdock group of bat shitters who will lose a winnable election, only for the executive office.

The Trump supporters are a bloc with the least at stake in the Republican Party. They're fueled by anger and just want to see drama and chaos, not a pragmatic plan for the next four to eight years. It's very much like Ventura as Minnesota governor - yet Minnesota in 1998 was a state that could pretty much run itself.

Also the selling point in 2014 from republicans was "get us the majority in the Senate and we'll win the White House and start doing what we have been talking about."

For Republicans, those who play the long-game have seen the slow progress to the goal after the 2008 decimation. Get the House in 2010. Senate in 2014. White House in 2016.

Trump winning the nomination would be the father who diligently saves $70,000 for college over 15 years and then blows it all on hookers and coke at the Venetian three weeks before the first tuition bill is due.

 

Check the exit polls, exmedia. Start with the obvious -- over 98 percent of voters were white. Trump was most dominant among older voters and those without any college. Without older working class whites, no Republican can win a general election. He has the support of a huge chunk of the party's core support, perhaps not enough to win the nomination, but enough so that any other nominee will have to conciliate Trump rather than simply beat him and banish him as a bad dream. Since Trump is both an egomaniac and a very bad loser, that will be a difficult chore.

 

Yes, he's dominant among the old tea party types (55 plus) and without college degrees. I don't place much stock in that as South Carolina has plenty in profusion. The trouble is that very few early states provide a true snapshot for November. Iowa is rural. New Hampshire is isolated and South Carolina is poor and has racial issues.

On Super Tuesday, I'll paying the most attention to North Carolina and who will win that. If Trump wins NC, he will win the nomination. Most of the March 1 states are Deep South, full of white trash and people with walkers so Trump should win those.
Because of Rubio and Kasich, you can't get much of an idea from Florida and Ohio - two other states that should reveal true support. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are later and those could also show the true snapshot.

That's the tap dance Rubio and Cruz have to do. To get ahead of Trump but not irritate Trump's petulant supporters.

 

Don't forget blue-as-can-be Massachusetts. We vote here March 1. Few polls, but those have shown Trump winning as he did in New Hampshire. It'll be interesting to see what Republican Governor Baker does. He endorsed Christie in New Hampshire, a particularly sneaky way of avoiding a position by supporting a guy he knew was doomed. Might do the same this time and go for Kasich.
If Trump wins here and in the deep south, he could legitimately claim to be the only candidate with national appeal.

 

Who doesn't love a good tap dance?

Which one's Fred and which one's Ginger?