Trump cheats at golf - the ONE and ONLY politics thread

He's famous.

 

I don't think he's likely to do it, but Florida, Virginia, Ohio and ... that's still four short. Iowa, I guess?

 

Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, New Hampshire.

 

I wouldn't equate Trump to Romney in any way, shape or form, especially in apparent electability and, you know, the way aforementioned likeability, even despite all his outrageousness.

 

He's tapping into angry white populism. This isn't new. We always knew that 33% was there. It's just always been chased more furtively, because courting them so openly isn't a great way to win a general election.

 

Good luck with that.

I'll buy New Hampshire. The other states are too diverse.

 

I think he could turn Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia. Maybe Florida.

 

Nevada is 20% Hispanic, which makes it pretty much a non-starter for Trump.

 

Not Nevada.

 

Iowa? He didn't even win Iowa in the GOP field.

Virginia? He took 34 percent of the GOP vote in a blue-leaning state.

Nevada, see above.

Florida, the two biggest political names in the state are Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio. You think they're going to use their influence to get out that vote?

 

Look, the Republican candidate needs more votes than in the last two elections to win, either switchers or new voters. Even if you grant the debatable proposition there will be plenty of both for Trump, he still can't afford to lose any past Republican votes, and evidence both anecdotal and polling indicates he'll lose a significant chunk, as stay-at-homes at best. Not saying he can't do it, but he's drawing to a weak hand.

 

There isn't a whole lot of correlation between winning a state in the primaries and winning it in the general.