Trump cheats at golf - the ONE and ONLY politics thread

There are plenty of ways anti-Trump Republican leaders can stage a sort of work slowdown while pretending to support Trump. The donor class can donate less. Campaign surrogates can make fewer or no appearances on the trail or on TV. Candidates for Senate and House can have prior engagements when Trump comes to town and so on. All these things happened to the McGovern campaign, the Goldwater campaign and to a much less extent the Dole campaign.

 

Just to nail this down, Republican candidate popular vote percentage:

1992: 37.4% (Perot pulled 18.9%, although most political scientists think he pulled a fair percentage of that from Clinton)
1996: 40.7%
2000: 47.9%
2004: 50.7%
2008: 45.7%
2012: 47.2%

There's this idea that each side gets 48% by default and then it's just a matter of appealing to independents, but it isn't really true. The presidential-year electorate skews Democratic and it has been getting worse every cycle for Republicans as the country becomes less white and women's turnout has grown faster than men's.

Republicans have known this for 20 years and this is why the party establishment has tried so hard to groom candidates like Rubio and Palin. Because if they can improve their standing with women and/or Hispanics, they can reverse this problem. Their efforts haven't been particularly successful, and they're worried that a Trump nomination will set them back even further.

 

The Palin comparison is a good one. Perhaps the biggest difference between that election and this cycle is that the width of the chasm between her and McCain/Obama/Biden was so large that only the willfully (or similarly) ignorant could overlook it. Other than their limited time in government (which they've used to sit on their hands, no-show and bellyache that nothing gets done), what are the Goofus and Gallant differences between Rubio/Cruz and Trump that cast them in an ethereal glow in comparison to him? I'd venture that even the most staunch supporters of the other two would prefer that their guy doesn't get the grilling Trump got last night because they know that he will fare no better (and likely much worse).

 

The difference between Trump and Palin is that Trump was already famous as someone perceived to be successful.

 

There has been little effort by the GOP to make it more diverse. If you look at where they actively run non-white male candidates it is typically in seats they are trying to flip.
I would argue that the widening percentage of non-affiliated voters, and the ensuing concentration of "conservatism" left to vote in the primary makes it very tough to break into the party while retaining a voting record/philosophy that might play nationwide.
As "liberal" as Oregon is, the conservative parts are so conservative that few Rs last very long without gaining a primary challenge from someone to their right. The party hasn't run a sitting legislator for statewide office in years.

 

This would not be surprising. I don't recall W being much of a factor in 2008. This will be especially true in close races.

 

Trump is a different animal, though. The basis of his support is that the Republican Establishment has been lacking, and he's picking up the people who have lost faith in it. I think he's using a lot of his own money, he's wisely taking advantage of every free media opportunity that presents itself (this leads to some missteps, but it keeps him visible and gives the impression that he's answering questions even when he's just babbling), and he's not getting a lot of support from the party leadership as it is. They're actively trying to take him out.
So what more can they take away from him that they haven't already?
Heard someone make the point today that Trump was essentially running a third-party campaign within the framework of the Republican Party. It was a pretty good assessment.

As a bonus -- and with apologies to John McCain -- Trump has set himself up as a true maverick. His supporters view him as a protest to ineffective leadership. The more the party leadership tries to marginalize him (and to a lesser extent, Cruz), the more popular he gets because it's viewed as trying to foist yet another milquetoast candidate on them and ignoring what the rank and file are saying.
The worst thing a candidate can have in this primary is the backing of the party leadership. It's a big part of what killed Bush, it's part of why Kasich hasn't gotten any traction, and it's why the perception of Rubio has changed so much in the past couple of weeks.
Whether it works or not, whether it's right or wrong, the Republican rank and file want something besides the same old, same old. Trump is an outsider and Cruz is the one experienced candidate who has consistently stuck to his principles (whether you agree with those principles isn't an issue here). That's why they're running 1-2 right now. If either one dropped out of the race, the other would win in a landslide.

 

Only difference is that in '08, no W would have been addition by subtraction.

 

The republican rank and file want SOTH Ryan and McConnell and the establishment leadership to be even more stridently opposed to everything. I'm not hearing them demand action, solutions to problems and a unified political system. I'm hearing screaming and whining that Obama accomplishes too much.
Trump supporters have no idea what they want, they just want to be mad. They have no clue and neither does he. No one leads from behind more than Trump. He's said everything, all sides of all positions.

 

John Oliver in that Drumpf video that went viral last week said they estimate Trump has only spent $50K of his own money, with the rest coming from donations.

 

There was a story not long ago saying Trump has spent more on hats than he has on data analysts.

 

Guys, guys, guys ... breaking news! I think I just found Trump's running mate.

Mike Ditka: 'Obama Is the Worst President We've Ever Had' - Breitbart