Trump cheats at golf - the ONE and ONLY politics thread

The UpShot says Trump could get to 1,237, but they're counting on California, which isn't winner take all -- it's winner take all by congressional district -- which makes it much harder to sweep:

 

Who gets seated as a delegate is going to become very important if it remains as close at it appears it will:

 

That graph makes some iffy assumptions. It presumes each candidate will continue to get what he's been averaging all along, and it also presumes the bulk of the Rubio vote will gravitate to Kasich, leaving Cruz to flatline. I don't know how many caucuses are left, but I expect Cruz to beat the "spread" in those contests. New York will be key to determining how important California becomes — Trump's home state with lots of moderates who should lean Kasich.

This mama bear is a looooong way from over. But yes, Trump is in a good position.

 

There hasn't been any polling of California since January, but my sense is Cruz will win here. The Republican Party out here consists solely of whack-job committed-to-the-cause types. And since they've been rendered irrelevant in California politics, this will be their one chance to flex their muscle.

 

Economist Global Forecasting Service: Trump election poses a risk to the global economy equal to that of terrorism

Global Forecasting Service

 

But does it pose a risk equal to climate change?

 

It's a little different when your "protesters" are kept behind barricades four blocks away rather then let into the arena.

 

I could watch that all day.

 

Oh, you mean GWB's so-called "Free Speech Zones"?

 

A tax return only shows income for that particular year, not total net worth.

 

Maybe they'll be embarrassed by who they have as their standard bearer. And rightfully so.

 

I think that speaks to the valley and deserts. Orange County and Bay Area Republicans are wealthier (establishment). San Diego is very defense and immigration (Trump). Then there is Kern County which wishes it could secede to Texas (Cruz). Basically there is a weird hodgepodge of values that will make California very interesting if Trump hasn't clinched