Trump cheats at golf - the ONE and ONLY politics thread

He's a fucking dipshit, but he destroyed Cruz tonight. Wonder how that'll affect the Cruz momentum.

 

Momentum doesn't exist. It's something made up by political reporters with no angle. It's for nitwits like Wolf Blitzer. It's a function of the primary calendar. There are states where Cruz was strong and he won 'em. Now he came to a state where he was loathed and got croaked.

 

Well, I think Trump's stumble lately means a Cruz surge. I concede he's in some unfriendly territory on the calendar.

 

Ditto for Bernie. It just gives the talking heads something to talk about, even while the writing's on the wall.

Hell will freeze over before the superdelegates switch their vote to an interloper with no party loyalty.

 

To be fair, this election has been far different from past elections where the picture gets clearer, quickly. But this isn't February, we've had two months of back and forth and it is pretty clear that some states are more inclined to vote for one candidate or another for a variety of reasons, rather than just rubber stamp earlier results. Hillary probably didn't do much to convert any Bernie people with her speech tonight, but it is worth noting she was closer to Obama at the end of '08 (and might have even won the nomination if she won Florida and Michigan and the results counted) than Sanders will be at the end unless he wins 80 percent of the delegates from here on in.

 

One thing to add to my earlier post: If the GOP had superdelegates in the same fashion as the Democrats do, they'd be 100% in the Kasich column and the race would be really FUBAR'd. (I still expect the GOP to have them in 2020.)

 

With the increasing numbers of people re-registering from non-affiliated into one of the parties for primaries, the parties will only continue to struggle in their explanations of the primary and caucus process to voters who typically blow the primaries off.

 

On the Democratic side, there are 1,691 delegates left to get (using the AP estimates) and Bernie has to get 1,209 of them to get the nomination.

I imagine the cluster of Eastern states that vote next Tuesday will follow the geographic pattern and go big for Hillary (not sure about Rhode Island, seems like a Bernie enclave to me).

It was over before, but it's over over now.

 

Cruz wasn't putting a whole lot of emphasis on New York, outside of a few congressional districts where he thought he might be able to pick off some delegates. He knew he had no shot to win there. Whatever campaign he ran in New York was mostly damage control.

 

This is becoming a thing with Trump. The jet, not knowing the rules about Colorado, his wife and kid not registering to vote. He's supposed to be a details guy from having to navigate the complex world of business and housing codes. It should be not just a strength, but a strength that can make people hold their nose about his other flaws and convince themselves he can be a good administrator and president. Instead, he's looking like a dumbass who can't keep little things straight.

 

One thing which everyone should have learned in 2004 but was really driven home last night is to ignore all exit polls. CNN was very excited that the poll showed Clinton only winning by four points. She won by 16. For that matter, the GOP exit poll underestimated Trump, too. I guess Clinton voters must've all come in after 6 p.m.