Trump cheats at golf - the ONE and ONLY politics thread

Not a chance in hell. The minority and female votes will be sufficient. Hillary is unpopular with females, bit not anywhere close to the level of Trump. Trump has about a 35 percent rate of support. I don't see him getting too much beyond that.

 

I think turnout in right-leaning rural areas like the one I grew up in will be incredibly low. I grew up in a tiny Central Kansas town and don't know anybody from back that way who is excited at all to vote for either Trump or Clinton.

Hillary might win states like Kansas where the Democrats never win presidential elections because the only people who turn out are liberals in Wichita and the college towns.

 

Turnout in right leaning rural areas will not be low.

 

I think your right and even more, I hope so. But I think it may be closer than you think. HRC is very unpopular. Women are reliable voters but minorities are not.

 

Trump is far more unpopular than HRC overall, despite what YF's Twitter feed might say.

 

Hitlerry is "unpopular" among women kind of in an abstract sense and when compared to Bernie Sanders, who is talking a good game.

If it comes down to HRC vs Trump head-to-head, Hillary takes the women's vote at least 75-25. Which could get worse., and probably will if The Pig shits himself a few more times.

 

And if he gets caught fucking his daughter, look out. Amirite?

 

I give 50-50 odds HE brings it up again. Remember, The Pig has gone on national teevee shows NUMEROUS times and slobbered all over his daughter's sexy hotness, almost always unprovoked, and in one instance, the hosts kept trying to save him, and he just kept on keeping on.

The rightwing lapdog media of course has never even pushed him on it. But once again, if Obungo had ever breathed even a word of interest in seeing his daughters naked in a skin mag, he'd have been lynched feet first from a telephone pole.

 

I think Trump has a legitimate puncher's chance to win if he's the nominee (which is looking likely). I believe he has a far better chance than Cruz, who IMO would have virtually no shot in a general barring something wacky. However I believe Trump has a big delta, i.e. a wide range of potential outcomes, especially compared to Cruz.

I think Trump's most likely outcome is getting clobbered, and he's much more likely than Cruz to get smoked badly, not just in the electoral count but a potential double-digit popular vote percentage deficit. But he's a total wild card. The coalition he has been putting together, and the groups of voters he might attract in a general, is unlike what we've seen in our lifetimes and is extremely unpredictable IMO. Also he'll muddy the waters so much that who knows what will happen. He'll throw everything he has at HRC. Maybe it'll backfire – it can make someone look like a bully to directly attack a woman, like it backfired on Rick Lazio in HRC's Senate campaign – but maybe it sticks and HRC starts flailing, and then what? Mayhem, and that benefits the seemingly unlikely/outsider choice.

I give Trump about a 5-10% shot. That's not great odds – he would still have a 90-95% of not winning – but there's only going to be one 2016 election. Talk about a small sample size. And maybe it's more like 15%; if you're one of the two major-party nominees, it seems laughable to insist that one has zero shot. (Except Cruz; he'd need something along the lines of an HRC indictment or unforeseen disaster, which of course could happen – that's why it's unforeseen.)

It seems to me that the people guaranteeing that Trump has no chance in a general are the same people who guaranteed he had no chance to win the GOP nomination. I dearly hope that the next prediction from those people isn't that Trump has no chance to win a second term.

 

He won't be attacking a woman. He'll be attacking Hillary Clinton, who is a career political animal who just happens to look like a woman.

Also, that I can recall, Hillary tried playing the sexist card once against Trump. I think it was back in the fall. Trump came blasting back and shut it down pretty quickly. Hillary either decided it wasn't worth pursuing then or was told by her handlers that getting sucked down into that fight would hurt her, and it went away quietly and quickly.
Whatever you think of Trump, whether it helps him or hurts him, he will not sit there and let people take potshots at him. Anything Hillary throws at him, he's going to return it tenfold -- and there's enough dirt and slime on Hillary that he'll have plenty of ammunition to shoot back with.

 

I agree, to some extent. Trump is going to fight like a dog, and so will Hillary. But I think it is more than likely that Trump will get caught up in the fight and say something very costly. He just can't help himself. I know we've said this many, many times, but if he puts his foot in his mouth in a big way in the general, it is OVER.