Brexit or how I'll make a killing in forex

Well, as much as I'd prefer enlightening them, I'll settle for consistently beating them in my country. Sorry UK.

 

It's nice to see you fighting for the common everyday bloke.

 

The funny thing is, people who have less always have more to lose than those who have more, because they can't afford to lose the little they do have. Blow it all up never works for the folks who set off the dynamite.

 

Exactly. No one has any idea what the consequences will be.

And, regardless of what happens, we won't be able to tell what would have happened if the UK didn't leave the EU.

This is fear mongering, and an excuse for elites to tell simple folks how dumb, and racist they are.

 

I mean, we'd all love it if the rules of the game froze at the exact point where we get to benefit from centuries of structural unemployment from our ancestors with no possibility of it for us.

 

Well, of course.

I'm a simple blue collar guy, with no degree, living in the Mudwest. Whose side should I be on?

 

Oh no! The little guy is going to totally get fucked.

Why didn't anyone worn them of this before the Brexit vote?

 

UK voters are really dumb:

 

Poor things. They look terrified.

 

Steve Nash now lives in England ?

 

So case for the UK suffering financially are basically two-fold: trade and foreign investment.
The trade case is pretty straightforward - as part of the EU, British companies had unfettered access to European markets. Now they won't. And that will have a non-zero impact on British companies. Right now half of all Britihs exports go to the eurozone. Having higher barriers to those markets will cause some problems.
Related is foreign investment. This isn't an insignificant factor - according to UN figures, the UK is the 4th largest recipient of foreign investment in the world. When Britain was part of the EU, England was a great place to invest. You got access to European markets while having a high-skilled labor force and relatively low taxes (by european standards). Now, that's not the case. If you want to do business in EU that investment might now go to Germany, Ireland, or the Netherlands. The strong London financial sector (8% of GDP is in financial sector) might relocate, taking jobs with it. Capital flight was one of the things that caused problems from the European periphery after the financial crisis and you could see a similar issue for the UK.

And, if the Pound stays weak, that means Brits have lower real incomes, which can lead to lower consumer spending, which will hurt the economy. It also means real tax revenue is lower which would lead to a reduction of goods and services provided - both of these should be short-medium problems. Eventually a weak pound should make British exports more competitive, though...

Obviously no one knows what type of deals will be struck with the EU upon Brexit. It's possible we could see BINO (Brexit in Name Only) where both sides basically decide that keeping the current treaties in place is in everyone's best interest. But I'm fairly dubious of this outcome. One, it'd be a slap in the face to the Brexit voters if the only change was taking down the EU flags. Two, as mentioned other countries could see economic opportunities in Brexit - the chance to poach financial organizations and others from the UK, which could provide a disincentive to give the UK favorable terms (they could also see punitive terms as a way of maintaining the rest of the union as a disincentive to other <country>-exists.

 

Here's a pretty decent analysis from before the vote.

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/EA022.pdf