Trump cheats at golf - the ONE and ONLY politics thread

No excuses from me. I have been beating the drum here for a couple weeks that he's surging.

 

Hey, I'm not doing parody like Dick. I think Hillary will win -- potentially in a blowout.

Trump probably has a 25% chance of winning as folks like Nate Silver have said.

But, polls do show the race tightening. It's hard to deny that.

And, it's incredible that it's this close, given Trump himself, the amateurishness of his campaign, and the spending differential.

She really should be blowing him out already.

 

The astounding carelessness of Donald Trump finally caught up with him

 

Why should she? She was damn near indicted less than two weeks ago.

 

Fair enough. I'm happy to throwout the Rasmussen poll. I don't think there's any way Trump is +7. And, so we can adjust the RCP Average a little.

Either way, it's been tightening.

 

I don't think we should throw out leaning on "likely voters" altogether this cycle, but I don't know if it will be as solid an indicator this time. If there is bipartisan agreement on anything, it is that Trump will attract some number of people to the polls who don't fit the "likely voter" designation and that there are some number of longtime "likely" voters who will opt out of picking a president in the end. Which group is bigger, who knows?

 

Yes, I agree. I was the first to say that. I was roundly mocked, here and elsewhere. It started after Orlando. When people are scared, they gravitate to Trump.

 

Because she's still running against Donald Trump, and his amateurish, underfunded campaign.

 

He forgot e House Speaker waving around the symbol of the host city's most hated football rival.

 

The overreaction to this is only going to end up helping Trump.

 

I don't understand what you're getting at when you say that she "should" be doing better. A lot of people don't like her. You know that. She has a pretty low ceiling because of that. He's also enormously famous, which certainly helps mitigate the funding deficit.