Trump cheats at golf - the ONE and ONLY politics thread

I am utterly unsurprised that the Bernie Bros. have found yet another woman to take out their anger on.

 

The way it's going Hillary might have her driven to Fort Marcy Park

 

Sorry. Meant Donald Effin' Trump.

 

Oh, I think all sides are the poopyheads here. I think you're the one saying one side is responsible for our ills.

 

How did Hillary do as a New York senator? Did her constituents like her or did she spit in their face?

 

Yep. I don't know why people are pretending this isn't significant. I've been beating the drum since he captured his Orlando bounce.

 

Funny.

I'm voting for Gary Johnson, though.

 

Any ills we have, and they aren't that many, are the long-ranging effects of European imperialism and the crash that came after the unsustainable high of our post-WWII manufacturing hegemony.

People like Reagan may have made it tougher to address those problems in ways I find desirable, but they didn't create them.

Trump is the first major party candidate capable of actually causing new, horrific, global-scale problems.

 

Obama, Obama, Romney and Kerry got no bounce.

So, from the last four conventions, we got one bounce -- Palin's short lived bounce.

There’s no hard-and-fast rule about convention bounces. Barack Obama didn’t get a large bump in either 2008 or 2012, yet he won both races. Walter Mondale got a 9-point bounce in 1984 but was blown out in November.

On average, candidates get about a 5-point bounce, according to Gallup data going back to 1964. That includes candidates like George McGovern (1972), John Kerry (2004) and Mitt Romney (2012) — each of whom received no discernible bounce during their conventions. But it also includes Jimmy Carter (1980) and Bill Clinton (1992) — who both got double-digit bounces. (Gallup is the most comprehensive source of historical polling data for presidential elections, despite the organization’s decision to forgo horse-race polling this year.)

Why Trump and Clinton might not get a convention bounce

Multiple polls show Trump getting a bounce.

Yes, 48% is one poll, but it's a new high.

You want to go with the RCP Average? OK. He's still making new highs, and we're more than three months out. We don't know what his ceiling is. He's clearly converting some folks who previously said they would never vote for him.

 

A bounce you invented entirely out of whole cloth because you predicted and couldn't admit it wasn't there.

 

Democrats are reaping what they sowed right now in overreacting to every word out of Trump's mouth for 12 months. When he didn't walk on stage and shout "nigger!" at the RNC, he won people over and, at the same time, eroded the opposing party's credibility.