Trump cheats at golf - the ONE and ONLY politics thread

We'll see, Deskgrunt. But I don't think that's how they feel. It seems like the prevailing belief in Republican circles is that they need to get back to true conservative roots. And that currently means the Cruz/McConnell foot-stomping, breath-holding obstructionist wing.

 

We've got a major party nominee openly arguing for nuclear first strike as a doctrine. I hope we do get back to the days of simple obstructionism.

 

Why does the Hall hate the Atlanta Falcons? After all, he did throw his first two interceptions for them.

 

If this keeps going the way it's going, republicans are likely going to deeply regret not confirming the current SCOTUS nominee.

But, I'll keep banging this drum: Dems MUST NOT get lazy and think this is in the bag. Gotta keep the heat on.

 

Agreed. And they can probably afford to focus efforts and money on a winnable Senate and even shrinking the House margin.

Hell, Hillary is going to be able to spend the final month campaigning not for herself but for down-ticket candidates in tight races.

 

You just know at some point that if Hillary wins and makes her own SCOTUS nominee, some Republicans will complain, "But what about Garland?"

 

I'm having a hard time buying the comparisons to previous elections, particularly when it comes to polls. Trump ain't a traditional candidate running a traditional campaign, and Hillary's negatives are so damn high.

 

1. Clinton's unfavorables have improved in most post-convention polls, although they're still not good.
2. Trump's had two strong polling periods, right after he won the nomination in May, and after the Comey presser through the Republican convention last month. In each case, he went from being behind by a decent if not insurmountable margin to tied or a little ahead. Clinton's had two similar periods, after she won her nomination in early June and now. And in each case, she's gone from tied or a little behind to ahead by more than a decent margin. Her upside just seems much higher than his.
3. Of course events can alter this dynamic, but what events. We had a mass murder apparently inspired by terrorism in Orlando and it didn't/ help Trump a bit. There's not going to be a second FBI email probe. I have a tough time imagining the Trump game changer. Winning the debates? I guess, but I think the Phillies have a better chance to make the Series.

 

RCP's No Toss Ups tally is 357-181.

 

You're right that previous elections are hard to compare. There's a lot read into as trends when in reality it only goes back to the 2000 election or sooner. And yes, Trump is not the traditional candidate against a woman who has lost a lot of trust by the public because of her emails and constant attacks from the right.

But

It is becoming rather clear this election is Clinton's to lose. All she's going to do is try to avoid a major gaff and let Trump continue to make himself look more and more unhinged. His whole shtick during the primaries was being unPC and pushing the envelope to appeal to a certain segment of the population. Thanks to a mixture of appealing to that segment and the Republican candidates refusing to actually go after Trump, he won the nomination. Now he's against a candidate who is very willing to go after him and a broader segment of a population that won't put up with his shtick. The Democrats have a broad coalition of minorities instead of relying on a single demographic, so the Republican candidate had a tough road to hoe to begin with. Now that GOP members are starting to jump ship, there's a certain amount of momentum being gained that Trump is going to have a helluva time stopping.

That's not to say he can't win. We saw in 2008 how the economic collapse ended McCain's run (yes, there were other factors, but it was the death nail). A major outside event could swing this against Clinton ie economy tanks or a major act of terror on the U.S. homeland.

 

They had their chance.

The day Garland was nominated, Pat Toomey tweeted that he would be glad to approve him under a different President.

Excuse me, but the guy either belongs on the Supreme Court or he doesn't. It's that simple.

 

We have one second hand account of this from a jilted boyfriend (Morning Joe).

Let's not pretend this really happened.

If it had, someone besides Joe would have heard about in the months between it supposedly occurred and now.