Trump cheats at golf - the ONE and ONLY politics thread

Why stop there? At this rate, the polls will have her getting every vote -- not electoral vote, but actual vote from every single American -- by Labor Day.

 

Is Trump so white that no one will admit voting for him to pollsters yet 51% will?

 

If Texas goes blue, the GOP is finished as a party that will ever occupy the White House. Those 38 electoral votes would offset Florida or Ohio (not both together, though). But a Democrat who can carry Texas would steamroll Ohio.

It won't happen anytime soon, but Texas could grow more purple in the next 20 years (unless the GOP stops nominating xenophobes). It's the Democrats' white whale.

 

Let's reboot here. At present, Trump is behind Clinton by 7-8 percent on average. That's about the margins by which McCain and Dukakis lost. So he'd wind up with 120-170 electoral votes. A sound loss, but hardly a sweep.

 

Poll: Clinton Opens Up Double-Digit Lead Over Trump

She's up 10.

 

The GOP will continue to decisively lose among Latino voters unless they dramatically repudiate Trumpism and the teabag legacy.

Texas will be "purple" through the 2020s. It'll be deep navy blue by 2036.

 

The days of 49-state landslides are long, long gone. The South and Plains states will stay red basically forever and the West Coast and Northeast will stay blue.

The only sweep possible is one of all the battleground states. What constitutes a battleground state seems to shift with every election due to demographics and also who's running.

 

Reminder, use poll averages for sanity purposes. USC poll has her up 1. That's probably not right, but it's best to use preponderance of evidence, not the latest bit.

 

I think that 8 is probably about right, though it's possible that she's up as many as 10 - there are a couple of polls that have her ahead in the 13-15 range, though I discount those to the same degree that I discount the one that has her up 1.

It looks like a runaway, and it probably is, but the following things are bubbling beneath the surface:

• Whenever he is able to act normal for a few days, he seems to recover some ground. Now, we also suspect that when he does so, he probably sheds some of his most enthusiastic backers, who aren't traditional likely voters and will only turn out if he turns up the noise. He has situated himself between a rock and a hard place, in some ways.
• Emails, emails, emails! When they are in the news, she tends to lose some support. When do they reach their expiration date, like all Clinton scandals eventually seem to?
• Amidst all the recent chaos, Trump's fund-raising has nonetheless started to take off. Anti-Clinton ads are sure to follow. It's an interesting development.

 

I don't agree with that. Demographics are constantly and rapidly changing.

That's why a candidate who caters to white male racists just doesn't work demographically anymore.

 

"...rejecting the conventions of political correctness is different from showing complete disregard for common decency."

--Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) on why she will not vote for Trump.

 

Susan Collins plagiarized me! I've been saying that for a year!