Trump cheats at golf - the ONE and ONLY politics thread

Same point here.

This like the in game projections of who will win. Late in the game, the team with even a small lead will be an overwhelming favorite to win. But, that can change quickly if the team that is trailing scores.

All it will take is a couple more polls, and putting Florida in Trump's column for Silver's projection to dramatically change.

 

This will come down to GOTV efforts.

Can Trump's tweets generate a turnout of his coalition of white nationalists, frat bros, older white folks, Evangelicals willing to hold their noses while voting, etc. to overcome the big tent of people supporting Hillary and/or turned off by him to win the states needed to get to 270? Given his campaign organization, I would bet against that.

 

Wager on the election?

 

This is revisionist history to act like the 47% comment barely hurt Romney.

It killed any momentum he had.

So, maybe it only knocked a point off of his numbers, but we don't know where he might have gotten to absent it.

Anything that can consume the news cycle late in the campaign can be devastating for a candidate trying to catch up.

The 47% comment put Romney on the defensive and dead in the water.

 

LOL.

Yes. White nationalist are the key component to Trump's coalition.

 

He actually closed the gap after the comment came out. So it didn't hurt him in that regard.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/fivethirtyeights-2012-forecast/?_r=0

 

That's not necessarily true. It probably capped his ceiling.

 

Do you deny GOTV will be very important in this election? How, as a Trump supporter, do you feel about his campaign's effort in that area?

 

You keep dancing around the fact that he has to sweep Ohio, Florida and PA. It ain't just Florida.

 

Silver's point on Twitter today is that 33 percent is a nontrivial chance of winning. That's true, but he argues against a strawman by saying the media is all saying Clinton will win. I sure haven't seen that. He's getting defensive about all the crap he gets on Twitter from his former liberal fans, and he knows his career is toast if he gets this election wrong. Maybe he should've just kept number-crunching as a hobby.

 

No comment from the Trump supporters of the board?

 

I've already declined this opportunity.

I still think she probably wins.

My main points are these:

1. For Democrats: your nominee is a terrible candidate, a terrible person, and will be a terrible president. You'll likely be pleased with her judicial nominees, but disappointed in nearly every other aspect. Journalist most of all should be horrified by a Hillary Clinton presidency. She will shut out the press more than any previous president.

2. For Republicans: Trump will run as close or closer than McCain and Romney. Fuck you for demanding a loyalty pledge from Trump, but not living up to your own pledge of loyalty. Fuck you for not getting behind Ted Cruz as a conservative alternative to Trump, because you didn't like Cruz personally -- especially if you truly believe Trump is unqualified to be president. Fuck you for pretending that not voting for Trump is different from supporting Hillary. Fuck you for being more loyal to the professional political class and politics as usual than to the party that enabled your career. Fuck you for working against Trump, instead of trying to influence him. You could have helped. Trump has a chance to beat her.