Trump cheats at golf - the ONE and ONLY politics thread

How the Government Measures Unemployment

According to the BLS the survey is 60,000 households - 110,000 people.

Also from the BLS:

"Some people think that to get these figures on unemployment, the government uses the number of people collecting unemployment insurance (UI) benefits under state or federal government programs. But some people are still jobless when their benefits run out, and many more are not eligible at all or delay or never apply for benefits. So, quite clearly, UI information cannot be used as a source for complete information on the number of unemployed."


You agree - right- to never post that "they fell off the roles so they're no longer counted!" B.S. again, yeah?

 

Now tell us about that Chow test you ran to determine whether there was a structural break in the LPR time series ...

 

I'm good at calling X's and O's. Don't know about this Chow test you refer to.

 

And gave him a lot of airtime which gave his a lot of credibility.

 

I'm sure you're super, super smart on the matter. I'm happy for you to point out what specifically I posted was incorrect - I'd rather learn from your experience than score some sort of snark points.

Right-wing media's attempts to point at the LPR and say, "See! It's falling! That's how we know the economy is bad!" are intellectually dishonest, at best.

The LPR has been lower then the current rate when they say the economy was good. It's been rising in a period when they say the economy is bad. It's been falling at a time when they say the economy is good.

That we're even talking about it, is simply because they're desperate to mitigate any political gains Obama might have earned because of a falling unemployment rate. And it leads to things like listeners who believe the unemployment rate is somehow calculated by counting unemployment checks.

 

The Putin stuff didn't really become a thing until he was already the nominee.

And, while they criticized the "Muslim ban", they also vouched for him personally.

They assured us that he didn't have a racist bone in his body.

 

Scarborough grilled him about Putin murdering journalists, live on the air.

It was Dec. 18.

 

A modest plea:

Can everyone chill out a little bit? I like this thread a lot because it's a good way to follow the news. It has a decent balance of right and left and moderate viewpoints when it's not descending into a circle jerk of rage. I'd rather it not go away.

 

This is a hell of an ad to run when the opponent says you don't support the Second Amendment.

 

Don't ever tell me to chill out again ...

 

That's true. Had forgotten about that.

 

I'm really not. As I noted well earlier in this discussion, however, your posts are coming from as laundry-cheering a place as @old_tony's, given that you're avoiding (whether deliberate or out of ignorance) certain non-trivial facts.

You are absolutely correct to note that the LPR has been falling for decades. This is largely a function of demographics: The denominator in the LPR is ALL adults, and more and more people who fall into that category have retired.

What you've not dealt with, however, is the so-called prime LPR. This is everyone in the 25-to-54 age bracket. This would absolutely NOT be vulnerable to the demographic shifts in which you take such comfort, and it's been declining steadily for the last 15 or so years.

Now I'm sure both you and @old_tony (and several others) can craft all sorts of pretty narratives as re: which President/Congress is "responsible," but that's neither here nor there: The fact is that neither of you has any real understanding about: 1) what's going on behind these numbers; and b) what they actually mean.