Trump cheats at golf - the ONE and ONLY politics thread

You're right. It's close. Long way to go yet. I (and Nate Silver) think all our political clocks were thrown off by the conventions being in July instead of August. Also, Nov. 8 is the latest possible Election Day. So I expect a few more twists and turns. It's hard to forecast an election where "None of the Above" would win a plurality.
PS: Interesting how the national polls taken during last week (NBC, McClatchy, AP) showed a reasonable Clinton lead while the ones taken later including the weekend show a basic tie. More evidence for my theory the decisive bloc of voters are still rejecting both candidates.

 

None of it will matter. He could take a giant shit on the middle of the stage and smear it all over Hillary and he won't lose a bit of support.

 

The conventional wisdom early on -- and not just about Trump, but about any potential Republican nominee -- was that they would have trouble flipping any state that Romney did not win.

So far, it looks like Trump will flip Ohio and Iowa (and Maine's 2nd congressional district, which is good for one electoral vote).

Florida is most likely going to Trump.

And he's got real chances to win Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and even Maine.

The "Trump/republican will need to run the table of swing states" conventional wisdom is dead. He now has multiple paths to 270, and Clinton is the one who must hold several can't lose states.

I think it's also clear that no other Republican would be running this strong, this cycle.

 

Palin dealt with the debate by refusing to answer the moderator's (Gwen Ifill) questions at all and just reciting talking points.

 

I think he may win a landslide. But he has to survive tonight.

 

If Trump takes a crap onstage, it will surely be the biggest crap ever.

 

Many unproven assertions here, but the last one is the most unproven. All available political science models BEFORE nominees were known showed a close race with a slight Republican edge. This one is closer to generic than is thought.
PS: Was in Ohio in the Youngstown area for a wedding this weekend. Saw one Clinton yard sign, saw one Trump yard sign. That was it.

 

Which is the way to go.

 

I have observed that there is a real human instinct to not put people on the spot and embarrass them by exposing them. She benefited from that, as has Trump.

 

Yep. The "winner" of tonight's debate will vault to a several point lead.

If it's Trump, he will have "normalized" himself, and will reach new highs in the polls.

He'll be tough to beat.

If he gets embarrassed, he may not be able to recover.

 

Right now, Mark Halperin, on Morning Joe, is trying to nail down Kellyanne Conway regarding Trump saying that Lester Holt is a democrat.

It's hysterical. This is what crossed the line for you, and you need to get to the bottom of?

 

I have no idea who will "win" the debate in the sense of perceptions. Trump's very best strategy would be to assume at least some fake humility and acknowledge being President is a hard job where success is often partial at best. Can he do that? I dunno. Can Clinton come off as sincerely in touch with voter concerns. I also dunno.