Trump cheats at golf - the ONE and ONLY politics thread

Yeah I forgot to mention voter turnout. That is honest to God what scares me. If the Dems don't get out on election day it will be a rough night. When my wife asked early on of there was any chance of Trump winning I said it depends on turnout. Low turnout across the board usually bodes badly for Dems.

But as for the "don't tell me what to do" I don't think that's going to be a thing. Republicans are more apt to balk at this and vote Johnson than Dems balking at HRC simply because we're all nervous what a Trump presidency means given what he says about women and minorities.

 

As long as this country is still 51% female on Nov. 8, Trump loses. Maybe it will be closer than we think, maybe more of a blowout, but he has no plausible path to victory

 

I won't say that as many females as males have overlooked his transgressions, but I know from Facebook that plenty have.

 

There are 300 million people in this country. You can find examples of anything. But demographics are still destiny, and Trump doesn't have the right combination to win.

 

The "don't tell me what to do" thing is going to largely depend on timing. I think Trump benefited from it over the summer when the polls were showing Hillary at plus-10 and he rallied. It's happened again over the past few days after she was reported to be at plus-10.
If he can keep from looking like an insane asshole for the next 10 days (a big if, admittedly) and stay on point, and hammer Hillary on her legitimate weaknesses (the WikiLeaks stuff and the Obamacare numbers), he has a message that resonates with people.

Plus, the Dems have thrown a lot at him and he's still standing, still punching back. That's what his core supporters have really embraced, is that they've got a candidate with some balls unlike McCain and Romney who folded when the Dems started their usual tricks. At some point it will be perceived as piling on and the tide will turn and people will start to take the mudslinging with a grain of salt. The more WikiLeaks releases about the inner machinations of the campaign, that could also happen.
The question is, does it happen at just the right time? Too early, and Trump will probably lose the bounce he needs to get from it or say something stupid that blows it. Too late and he won't get any bounce at all. If it starts to happen heading into that last weekend, things might get interesting.

 

Take it easy, Mark. Why don't you stop talking for a while. Sit the next few plays out.

 

Yet Trump keeps letting the story linger when it's bought up, like with O'Reiley tonight. Or is this another one of his "I'm gonna sue" moments?

 

And THEN Hillary is arrested.

 

This election has long been a referendum on how much people hate America, its bullshit politicians and how Hilary Clinton embodies that America and that politician. At this point, she could personally cure cancer and there'd be 17 conservative Web sites, within minutes, questioning whether cancer cells had gotten a kickback from the Clinton foundation.

Trump embodies the hate of all the things Hilary Clinton embodies, and we'll see if that collective rage and hate overcomes Trump's own repugnance. I doubt it, but I've been often wrong before.

I think what hurts him are the younger evangelical Christians. They won't vote his way. They're politically unsavvy anyway, and they tend to conflate how one runs government with how a dude with a beard and dark-framed glasses talks about love winning, so I'm guessing they sit this one out in larger numbers than usual.

 

He isn't "still standing" in any meaningful electoral way. He has given up on competing in a number of crucial states. The national committee has given people permission to bail on him. He has started tapering off ad buys.

He is playing out the string, sure, but he isn't a contender.

 

I think Trump is going to make this thing closer than some of the rosier projections seem to indicate. I doubt he'll lose Arizona and he is likely to take Ohio. The question is going to be will him not being on national television regularly like he was in the convention and in the debates going to give him enough of a boost to get people who don't like Hillary to come back to him. That may make things tighter in North Carolina and Florida, even flip them red. The problem is he needs to sweep NC, Florida, Ohio, Arizona, Nevada, Iowa plus New Hampshire, Pennsylvania or Virginia. That combination isn't likely to happen. My guess is Hillary wins with either 293 or 307 electoral votes.

Absolute best case for Trump is a Bush 2000 win. Just don't see that happening. I don't see him winning Nevada or Pennsylvania. Meanwhile HRC is looking at 293 to a 333 win on realistic projections with best case she wins Ohio for a 351 win. If Trump shits his pants in the next week and a half, this could be a 413 win for Hillary (this assumes Ohio, Arizona, Texas and Georgia all break for her. Not holding my breath that happens).