Trump cheats at golf - the ONE and ONLY politics thread

Weiner, sex, and reminders of another male around Hillary who has sex?

 

Well, John Harwood is such a straight shooter. I'm sure he wouldn't try to spin us.

 

I say we stiff him and don't pay him. He can sue if he doesn't like it.

Also, instant Wikileaks dump of all his texts and emails to Ivanka.

Enjoy!

 

Hopefully with sexts from Ivanka.

 

This is an opinion piece published by a lawyer at a friend's firm. I'm wondering if @Dick Whitman can confirm that this is an accurate analysis in his opinion.

Elizabeth Holtzman: What Comey should do to reverse damage done

 

31.8% in 538 right now.

North Carolina is pink. Arizona is getting redder, and Nevada is about to tip.

Utah is red, and I haven't heard any talk of Georgia or Texas lately.

Trump has a 20% chance or better in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Colorado.

His chances are getting better.

 

When YF talks about things getting redder. I imagine him as a Shih Tzu humping on Trump's leg.

 

I'm sure won't cause any problems at all.

White nationalists plot Election Day show of force

 

Silver's model will take a big jump either way this afternoon when that Marquette Law Wisconsin poll comes in. The polls he rates as most accurate really have an outsized influence on his scores.

 

You are really over hyped for this. It is still just one poll.

 

538 still a major outlier on his chances. He isn't going to win any of those states.

Colorado is a great demonstration of the flaw in 538's overestimation of possible polling errors.

It has leaned blue in recent years. Democrats beat the crap out of Republicans in new voter registration to such a degree that both campaigns abandoned the state as a real battleground. This led to pollsters mostly ignoring it.

The 538 model just sees "normally leans blue, but sparsely polled, so anything might happen!" It doesn't see the information that tells us why it was sparsely polled.

And now we have early vote data pouring in from Colorado everyday, and it confirms that Colorado is clearly better than recent elections for Democrats, and they won last time there by 5.4, so it really is completely gone for Trump.

But 538 doesn't see any of that.

You are seeking out information that tells you what you want to hear rather than looking at the whole picture. 538 thinks his chances are not terrible. Four other major polling projection models disagree, as does early voting data, as does every leak of internal polling from either side.

It really is over.

 

Why is she in Michigan?

You keep saying internal polling is so much more reliable. Why was Romney's so bad, four years ago?