Trump cheats at golf - the ONE and ONLY politics thread

I'm not sure if I agree with Silver's model or not, but it's by far the most viewed and influential of them, driving such things as betting markets and public perception of the race. So what he thinks matters.

 

She is in Michigan because it's an important state she needs to win, because African American turnout is crucial for her, and most of all, because it's not an early voting state so rallying the troops is more important.
PS: Romney's internal polling just didn't foresee that MORE African American voters would come out in 2012 than 2008. Neither did hardly anyone else's polls, except Obama's internal polls.

 

HC,

I will take a stab at it. That article came out over the weekend and was updated on Monday, 31 OCT.

Much of the clarifications that are requested have come out through further reporting, and some of them are now OBE because the warrant has been obtained and agents are currently looking everything over.

My recommendation is for Comey and DOJ to say no more either way at this point. Do no more "damage", and there's no putting anything back in the bottle with what has been said so far. So at this point, silence is probably the best option.

 

Hostility toward women is one of the strongest predictors of Trump support

 

Downstate races? Closing off the .1% chance?

Obama was in Wisconsin this late last time around. How close was that election?

Romneys internals were based on his campaign's insistence on baking in some last minute break of independents toward him that wasn't ever there.

 

Ha, of course you think this. The last thing you want is the status quo that this is potentially bad for her to be upset.

 

Matters for the narrative? Sure. But he isn't better at it than everyone else who does it, so when he is out on a big limb it is worth noting.

 

OK, but the internals were inaccurate. That's the point. How did they become infallible in four years?

 

Jon Stewart on Trump ...

Jon Stewart Returns to Bash Trump a Week Before the 'Last Election Ever'

 

I assume she has to spend the money and Trump needs to win Mich and/or Wisconsin to have a shot, why not put your foot on his throat?

 

Internals operate much differently than media polls. They most closely resemble the Times/Upshot/Siena polls as they are built on voter registration data, THEN random sampling,rather than starting there. Of course they're not infallible, no poll is. But Harwood is citing three separate internal pollsters coming to roughly the same conclusion. That's the difference than if he had some anonymous Dem. pollster saying, "Oh yeah, we're up six."

 

The post-mortems I've read said their polling was right, their projections were wrong.

Nobody said infallible. They are part of the picture.

Trying to split each piece off to attack it individually is a cute trick for a lawyer or on a message board, but it won't give you the most accurate appraisal.

If the polling models were missing badly and Trump still had a chance, we wouldn't see the early voting results we are: Colorado and Nevada are gone, she is projecting ahead in NC and even in Florida.

He wouldn't be getting his ass kicked in fundraising. He wouldn't have the national party trying to pull away from him as much as they dare.

The people whose livelihoods depend on clicks and views will find a way to sell it as a horse race. It isn't one.