Trump cheats at golf - the ONE and ONLY politics thread

Do I have the "real skinny"? No.

But, I know enough to recognize a story that's based strictly on spin.

Dems always do better in early in person voting. And, if you don't think the African-American totals have them terrified, you don't follow politics closely.

 

Maybe it's misplaced faith, but I suppose I just hope the folks in this country have the sense to not vote for a loudmouth clown, someone who clearly has no desire to take the race or office seriously. Maybe that's what we want, someone who doesn't know what they're doing. But I kind of doubt it.

Should he win, it'll be an impressive reversal of historical trends and a victory for disorganized populism over organized political campaigning. I'm guessing it'll repudiate almost every modern indicator we have.

I wonder if the Trump child rape story that started popping up will get any traction. We could a first with a president elect having lawyers defend him in court on those charges. Ahhh, what a time to be alive.

 

OK, but at every step, you've come out hard spinning for Trump. So would we be wise to discount that as someone trying to make himself feel better as the outcome he'd prefer still looks moderately unlikely?

 

Clinton has a different demographic coalition than Obama. African American vote will be down, as will youth vote, but all signs still point to Hispanic vote going through the roof and more than making up for both.

It is still over. The Senate is going to be insane though. Evan Bayh looks like he has blown it.

 

Of course you should discount what I say as spin.

I know it's spin. I've presented it as spin.

I still think Hillary probably wins, but Trump has a chance.

 

Any map that has him winning Nevada and Colorado can be rejected out of hand. Early voting is deep in these states, and both show Clinton with a prohibitive lead.

If you want to have a Trump win fantasy, you still have to flip those two back to blue and find him an upper Midwest state to dream on.

 

YF, send in your resume!

Casting notice goes out for new 'up-and-coming' conservative news network

 

It's not a matter of gravitas, it's a matter of emotional proximity. I don't, and never will, feel personally connected to the "space" of a presidential campaign. That is not the case for this place.

 

Republicans look like they might hold Wisconsin and New Hampshire too.

They're definitely holding Arizona and Florida, both of which were Dem targets.

 

Nevada is 50/50 right now. That's where 538 has it, and Trump is up in the RCP Average.

The latest poll in Colorado has it tied. Trump is only slightly behind in the RCP Average, and 538 gives him about 27% chance to win.

And, everything is moving Trump's way right now, with 5 days to go.

It's still an uphill battle, but he's got a shot, and Colorado and Nevada are part of what gives him a shot.

 

Whenever you say he's got a shot, I keep thinking of Dumb and Dumber.

 

Gawker, of all places, had a pretty good takedown piece on those allegations back in June.
In a nutshell, they weren't able to get a sit-down interview with the woman making the allegations, despite months of trying. They kept getting the runaround from her lawyers. One lawsuit was filed in California that was dismissed, and the address listed in court documents had no one living there. Another was filed in New York after that, but it was a toned-down version. All the while, it seems someone behind the scenes has been pushing it. When the reporters tried to chase some of the story leads, they pretty much went nowhere.
When Jezebel and RadarOnline are skeptical of salacious accusations against Trump, you might want to be skeptical.

http://jezebel.com/heres-how-that-wild-lawsuit-accusing-trump-of-raping-a-1782447083