Election Day Poll No. Whatever

Long lines outside some polling places in Vegas on Friday, last day of early voting in Nevada. Silver State very much in play.

 

Nevada is gone. Something like 80% of expected turnout already cast ballots. Relative D/R on those ballots is roughly identical to 2012, when Obama won the state by 7 points.

Trump would have to win Nevada independents by roughly three times the margin Romney did to close the party ID gap, and that is assuming he holds Republicans there as well as Clinton holds Democrats. None of that has any realistic chances of happening.

 

Even Beebe can't make heads or tails of this one.



As for myself, I still don't know.
I know I will not vote for Hillary under any circumstances.
I've thought about voting third party, but Jill Stein is a wack-a-doodle and it seems like Gary Johnson's idea of foreign relations is going to eat at Taco Bell for lunch and Olive Garden for dinner.
I thought about doing a write-in vote for myself, but I really don't want the job.
I don't want to vote for Trump, but he's better than Hillary. And, while he might not be a great president or even a particularly good one, I think his election can have some strangely positive ripple effects. So I'm leaning Trump. But it might be a game time decision.

 

No snark here. Aside from your being a Republican-leaning voter and wanting to support your party, what are your that strong objections to Clinton? Also, please list positive ripple effects of Trump presidency.

 

I think/hope Clinton will win, though my belief in our country being reasonable and fairly progressive has been shaken of late. I don't recognize this America, and I don't like it much right now.
This quote by Margaret Atwood fits: He brings out the temper-tantrum-throwing willful brat in all of us. ‘Why can’t I do what I want? Why can’t I have what I want? Those other people are stopping me. Those other people have a bigger lollipop that I do, I’m going to take their lollipop away from them. … Hillary Clinton is a better man than Trump. She has more connection to the traditional male virtues. She has comported herself in a much more manly fashion. Ask any real alpha males that you’ll know and they’ll say of Trump, ‘This is the guy we didn’t like at school because he was a bully, but as soon as anyone pushed back at him he started to whine.’

 

I think she's as corrupt and slimy as the day is long. I think there's a lot more to the e-mail scandal than just simple carelessness, up to and including her selling access and foreign policy decisions while she was secretary of state. In the process of that scandal she's appeared to put herself above the law at a very high level, which I find reprehensible in a public official. In terms of character, she is as despicable as she tries to make Trump out to be.
Even though she's touting herself as qualified for the presidency because she's been associated with the federal government for 30-plus years, I don't think she's done a particularly good job.
Given her age, her health issues and the way those around her carefully manage her public appearances, I can't help but wonder if we're setting ourselves up for a shadow presidency ala the later Reagan and Wilson years. If she's elected, are we electing Hillary Clinton or Huma Abedin, and how much sway does the latter have over the former?
She and the Democrat party have also made it pretty clear that they don't particularly give a damn about me, a 40-something white male that they view as the past. They've spent a lot of time belittling me, my beliefs, and my modest hopes and dreams as things to be ashamed of while telling me I won't matter in 10 or 20 years and barely matter now. They don't care if I vote for them or not, so why should I give them my vote?

As for the positive ripple effects of a Trump presidency, it's more the effects it would have on both major parties and, I hope, the tone of the country.
Starting with the political, I honestly believe Trump is a symptom and not a cure. People on both sides are fed up. If the leaders in both parties recognize that (a 50-50 bet to be sure; they're just as likely to lash out at Trump and his supporters while trying to hang on to their own power), we could see some shifts in policy toward what is more in line with the will of the people.
Having Trump in the White House also means the leadership in both parties will work against him to a degree. The Democrats for obvious reasons, and the Republicans to keep him in check. That might help to limit the power of the presidency. A president ruling by decree and by bureaucracy is one of the more unsettling things to come out of Obama's two terms. Checks and balances are always good, no matter how they have to come about. In one of the great ironies, Trump could be a great unifier by bringing people on both sides together to work against him.
Socially, we've taken a sudden hard left turn here in the past few years. Up is down, left is right, man is woman, woman is man, the blue sky we're told is only blue because we probably fucked it up at some point with carbon emissions. Progress is fine, but this isn't "progress." It's insanity that is gaining traction because it's been allowed to gain traction through sometimes misguided legal decisions. Hillary Clinton is almost certainly going to continue that trend, especially if she appoints four or five Supreme Court justices. She's said she wants to use the Supreme Court to advance that trend, to use it as a political arm to advance her agenda -- something that should make everyone shudder. I think Trump can help stem the tide a little bit with his selections, and he likely won't use the courts to shove his policies down our throats.
Finally (because it's late and I'm getting punchy), we really need to end this era of politics and clear the decks before it's too late. Trump is almost certain to be a one-term president. Hell, he might get bored and not even run for a second term. Hillary could easily ride the true believers to a second term and will most definitely run if the DNC has to turn her campaign into "Weekend at Hillary's."
A Trump election could help us move into a new era, with new faces, in 2020. A Hillary election probably delays that process until 2024 at the earliest.

 

Oddly, that reasoning fits the way most people on the right feel. And the quote sums up, maybe not the way they feel about Hillary specifically, but liberals in general.
We're going down a strange path where no one is very satisfied or comfortable. We're lost as a nation. And yet we keep barreling down that path like an old married couple, half of which is too stubborn to turn around and retrace their steps to find what works, while at the same time blaming the other one for getting them lost; and the other half is afraid or refuses to listen to any ideas that might get them headed in the right direction.

 

This is pretty much how every woman or non-white male has felt, forever.
And while I share your feelings about Clinton's carelessness with emails, I also think there are many high-level politicians who are thinking, "Phew, but for the grace of God."

 

I read that quote through your eyes and can see what you mean. And it definitely hits: you and I (and OT and Starman and on and on) might agree about food or dogs or sports, but we want a very different America. This election has exposed that more than any other. (At least for me -- I lived overseas through the '90s, so didn't feel the divisiveness.) When we emerge on Nov. 9, if your version of America prevails, I'll be the half of that old married couple to split for good. And I'll mean it when I wave goodbye and wish you luck. I can't live in a country that openly supports racists, misogyny and a president who's never done a single thing in his life that wasn't about his ego.
(Sorry Moddy if this thread went on a tangent you didn't intend.)

 

Hillary Clinton has been the most investigated person in America except for her husband, going on for 25 years now. She has yet to be charged with a crime of any kind, although she's been accused of any and all of them including murder. I think yesterday's new accusation, that she practice witchcraft with John Podesta, gets to the heart of the complaint. She's the symbol of women gaining more power and status in society, exposing deep insecurities in many men and not a few women.
My last comments Batman. First, let me say I am impressed by your candor and willingness to publicly discuss your thinking on what's a difficult decision for you. That takes intellectual courage and honesty, both rare qualities. But when I hear people (not just you, I've heard it a lot) say having President Trump would "shake up the system." all I can think of is the Aesop's Fable about the frogs who wanted a king, and King Log and King Stork.

 

Trump wins. His support has been under reported all along - that silent Trump vote noted above - and I think many Republicans will hold their noses and vote for him rather than see Clinton win.

The more that comes out about the scandals and justice department, if anyone pays attention, is damning stuff too... And it won't go away. Clinton has been damaged by this.

 

Red, I'm sorry. I just have to respond to this. My wife's best friend, the maid of honor at our wedding, is a career attorney in the Dept. of Justice, and has been since 1979. She served under Republicans and Democrats alike (in fact, although she's a Democrat, she said it was easier under Republicans because they didn't micromanage as much). She will retire after the election, an intention she announced back in 2015. She currently serves in the public corruption unit. You are slandering her and the other career attorneys of the department out of a, well, call it a lack of information. I resent that.