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Trump cheats at golf - the ONE and ONLY politics thread

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by SnarkShark, Jan 22, 2016.

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  1. RickStain

    RickStain Well-Known Member

    My thoughts on Silver

    1). His model has a blind spot that is causing it to overestimate Trump's chances by a whole lot

    2) this is OK. Models have blind spots. Competing models and arguments are part of science, even pop science.

    3) arguments that he is doing it on purpose to drive a narrative are just fanboys being fanboys

    4) I haven't read much of the actual arguments. Silver is a statistician, not a pundit. His takes are as hot as anyone's

    5) i have never forgiven him for selling me on what a Cubs-favoring mismatch the 2007 NLDS was
     
    RickStain, Nov 5, 2016
    #40645
    TowelWaver and YankeeFan like this.
  2. HanSenSE

    HanSenSE Well-Known Member

    HanSenSE, Nov 5, 2016
    #40646
    Deskgrunt50 likes this.
  3. Inky_Wretch

    Inky_Wretch Well-Known Member

    Interrupt Obama with a Trump sign, he talks about respect and urges people to vote.

    Try to hold up an anti-Trump sign, the Pepes yell "gun" so the Secret Service will swarm you.
     
    Inky_Wretch, Nov 5, 2016
    #40647
    franticscribe, Deskgrunt50 and HanSenSE like this.
  4. Michael_ Gee

    Michael_ Gee Well-Known Member

    Point five would seem to be the heart of the matter.Seriously, even back in mid-October when Trump was way back in the polls, Silver never gave him worse than a 15 percent chance. That indicates he built a 15 percent black swan factor into his model, which kind of contradicts the entire concept of the black swan.














    p
     
    Michael_ Gee, Nov 5, 2016
    #40648
  5. HanSenSE

    HanSenSE Well-Known Member

    Like I was saying about Bob Roberts 2 ...
     
    HanSenSE, Nov 5, 2016
    #40649
  6. RickStain

    RickStain Well-Known Member

    What does "get it wrong" mean here?

    PEC has it Clinton +2.7 with 98-99% certainty she wins

    538 has it Clinton +2.9 with 65% certainty she wins

    If she wins by 3, was he wrong or right?

    I'm very curious where 538's model would put Trump's chances if NV were taken off the board instead of 50.5% to Trump
     
    RickStain, Nov 5, 2016
    #40650
  7. Baron Scicluna

    Baron Scicluna Well-Known Member

    [​IMG]
     
    Baron Scicluna, Nov 5, 2016
    #40651
    Cosmo, Big Circus, FileNotFound and 1 other person like this.
  8. Inky_Wretch

    Inky_Wretch Well-Known Member

    I'm glad Trump wasn't injured tonight. Paper cuts can really sting.
     
    Inky_Wretch, Nov 5, 2016
    #40652
    HanSenSE likes this.
  9. MileHigh

    MileHigh Moderator Staff Member

    Trump to appear in less than 30 minutes one mile from me. I'm concerned.
     
    MileHigh, Nov 5, 2016
    #40653
  10. RickStain

    RickStain Well-Known Member

    I'm fascinated by the model's belief that there is a 1-in-12 chance that Clinton gets Gore'd. That is huge.
     
    RickStain, Nov 5, 2016
    #40654
  11. Michael_ Gee

    Michael_ Gee Well-Known Member

    Funny you say that. Harry Enten, who works for 538, tweeted the same thing this morning. But Silver can't change models in midstream.
     
    Michael_ Gee, Nov 5, 2016
    #40655
  12. Justin_Rice

    Justin_Rice Well-Known Member


    Why do you lie? Obama horribly berated that man. Trump told me so.



    I'll leave it to TrumpeeFan for further trumpslination.
     
    Justin_Rice, Nov 5, 2016
    #40656
    Iron_chet, franticscribe, Deskgrunt50 and 1 other person like this.
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