Trump cheats at golf - the ONE and ONLY politics thread

If it bothers you so much, we can just assume all of your posts are lazy. That does seem to hold up just fine.

 

I never said it was a good defense.

 

He has gone too long without banging Stifler's mom.

 

https://books.google.com/books?id=abcDAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA10&lpg=PA10&dq=tuskegee+plan+to+oust+negro+voters&source=bl&ots=NIfwBqMt5e&sig=-FjgSRN3QI11pzn4yQp7kWgcnnY&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiLzpTQ0JPQAhXryFQKHeZSCSEQ6AEIHTAA#v=onepage&q=tuskegee plan to oust negro voters&f=false

the more things change

 

Here's the thing that people keep glossing over when it comes to Silver's projections: They can't take early voting into account until those numbers are reflected in the polls. The polls are the only things that impact Silver's polls-only model, and it's not just the end result of who leads who. Silver's process takes demographic weighting into account (too many Republicans or Democrats polled as compared to the percent of the electorate, too few women or Hispanics, etc).

There are a total of three polls, all with mediocre reputations, that have been released in Nevada since Nov. 1. They have Trump up 5, Trump up 1 and a tie. Silver is also giving significant weight to older polls from more reputable pollsters. But they range from around Halloween to even back to October 20.

Silver's model takes poll quality and the preponderance of undecided voters into account where others do not. That leads to higher uncertainty, especially in an election that features fewer polls than 2012 and more undecideds than 2012 and 2008 combined.

It's worked for him. The only time he's been wrong is when he's been a pundit and ignored his own data - hence is refusal to take Trump seriously for so long in the primaries despite what his model said.

I have a sneaking suspicion that Silver will be proven right: Clinton will win but it won't be as decisive as other prognosticators are saying.

 

I think a look at the "tipping point" states is far more informative than his probability of winning statistic.

Mentioned this awhile back, but a far better website whose folks have been doing this for far longer than 538 is electoral-vote.com

ElectoralVote

That's worth following for the next few days. It updates once a day around 6 AM.

Happy T-3 everyone. Have a great day!
VB

 

Also, Zenger, who joined the electoral-vote.com team this year to help the Votemaster, had a pretty good take down of 538 in September:

FiveThirtyEight: An Assessment

 

As Silver himself has written repeatedly, his model gives Trump a higher chance, much higher, than the others, but it also gives a higher (not nearly as high, but maybe 15 percent) that Clinton wins in a landslide. It just has about a 15 percent chance on each side that something wholly unexpected happens.

 

If Clinton wins but doesn't flip Congress, the House will hold an impeachment vote every Wednesday.

 

So, his prediction is that something will happen to someone. Or not.

 

Clinton aides have baggage because they've been covering for the Clintons.

Her presidency is going to be such a mess.

 

Yes, Republicans plan to divert valuable resources to harassing her with more of the millions of dollars worth of investigations to which they have already subjected her for years and yet turned up nothing.