Election Day Poll No. Whatever

The two states I'll be watching are New Hampshire and Colorado. If Clinton can hold both, it's done.

 

Colorado is signed, sealed and delivered.

 

I think I'm about ready to make my prediction on the map. I reserve the right to change my mind based on anything I read on Twitter in the next 36 hours.

The electorate so far in Florida is trending less white than 2012. The polling is not overwhelming but still solid for Clinton there. It could be just bluster, but D people seem pretty convinced they've got it based on internal metrics. It isn't the slam dunk that CO and NV are, but I know which way I would bet at even odds.

Ohio also remains stubbornly decent for Clinton. Based on its position relative to the nation, it should be solidly lean Trump if the election is 0-2 for Clinton. It is behaving more like a very slight lean Trump, more reflective of Clinton +3 or 4 nationally.

North Carolina looks like it should hold narrowly for Trump unless the good end of projections of unaffiliated voters for Clinton comes through.

I'm still not sure about NH or Ohio, so I'll give them to Trump just to be safe, and go with this map for my tentative prediction:

2016 Presidential Election Interactive Map

Clinton wins the national vote by about 3 points

 

I voted for Clinton because

A) She's the only legitimate candidate;

and

B, C and D) Fuck Donald Trump.

 

Only three points? Based on the way you've been saying it's over I would've guessed you predicting a shutout, with Hillary getting 153 percent of the popular vote.

 

We live in a highly polarized time politically. Three points looks small, but there was never a chance to get it much closer than that. Only people who have incentive to sell you the horse race can say with a straight face "we're behind by millions of votes, anything could happen!"

The last three weeks or so have been the dream scenario for the GOP. The campaign staff finally got Trump to shut up and stay hidden so Republicans could stop feeling quite so bad about rooting for him and then the FBI reminded them how much they really do hate Clinton and want her to lose.

That got him back to a generic Republican status, but generic Republicans still lose national elections in the current demographics of America. Anything Clinton lost to low youth enthusiasm, Trump gave back with Hispanic enthusiasm against him.

 

Think the latest Comey announcement causes any kind of late Clinton break?

 

Nah. Any positive effects are cancelled out by the emails being in the news at all

 

Yeah, kind of feel the same way. The damage of Comey's bungling is already baked in the cake.

 

It might have a marginal effect on the younger voters who'd never vote Trump, but were loath to get behind Clinton. Jill Stein is still getting two percent in the polls. A chunk of that could come in handy. Younger voters, BTW, in addition to not voting as much as other age groups in general, also lag in using early voting when they do vote. So it's an audience that'll have some time to absorb the news.

 

A very sizable chunk of votes has already been cast before the Comey stuff hit in a lot of states. That was while Hillary was still rolling, and those early votes could be just enough to turn some swing states.

I don't put a lot of stock in Dem GOTV as any advantage. It's important because it puts the Democrats on equal footing with diehard Republicans who always vote come hell or high water, but that's all it does. Look at Florida, where Trump has ZERO ground game. He doesn't need it because his peeps will turn out.

If the 28-percenters turn out 100% and the voting populace as a whole turns out at only 50% in an off year, that's the same effect as 56%, and that's where the Dems struggle.