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Retirement?

Discussion in 'Anything goes' started by bstnmarthn354, Jan 2, 2017.

  1. Bronco77

    Bronco77 Well-Known Member

    My parents both were teachers in Illinois and took advantage of an early-retirement program there in the early '90s. Way it worked was that if you retired at age 57, you'd receive 60 percent of your final salary for the rest of your life. Plus health benefits until age 65, and Medicare supplemental after that. So they both took advantage of that, as did most of their co-workers -- the public retirement system in Illinois was quite well-funded back then.

    More than 20 years later, Illinois has screwed the financial pooch so badly that it'll probably take at least a decade to fix the problem, and (at least according to mom and dad), younger teachers now are required to work until age 67 to get the same deal they did. Rod Blagojevich, in his final year before he got the boot as governor, floated the idea of cutting benefits to retirees who got the deal my parents did, but that push died. Still, the days of state employees getting lucrative retirement deals in Illinois probably are gone for good.
     
  2. SpeedTchr

    SpeedTchr Well-Known Member

    If Social Security isn't solvent 15 years from now, I might as well walk out on the ice and drift out to sea. I pretty much have a guaranteed place to live, if I can cover the taxes and bills, but food might be nice in my dotage. Sometimes, pursuing your dream career, no matter how satisfying, doesn't set you up well for retirement.
     
  3. Buck

    Buck Well-Known Member

    Even if it were solvent in 20 years, my SS installments project to be less than 25% of my current salary.
    If its available to me at that rate, I'll be shocked, but pleasantly so.
    I'm working under the assumption that by the time I can access that, it'll either not exist or be greatly, greatly reduced.

    SS is not a retirement plan.
     
  4. doctorquant

    doctorquant Well-Known Member

    MommaQuant practices architecture part time, and her firm treats her as an outside contractor. As I understand it that's not the way they're supposed to do it -- she should be an employee -- but so be it. They're fine with her as a part-timer and she's comfortable there, so we just put up with it. Anyway, since she's a contractor that means none of her taxes (federal and payroll) are deducted by her firm. So awhile back she and I were musing over the retirement question (she'll turn 58 this fall) and she said, in a regretful tone, "And of course I won't draw Social Security."
    "What?"
    "Well, I don't pay Social Security taxes."
    "The hell you say. You pay 15.3% in self-employment tax."
    "When?"
    "Every damn year when I do our taxes!"
     
    lcjjdnh likes this.
  5. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    I don't want to freak you out. ... But my understanding of OPERs is a bit different than "doing well." Ohio relies on alternative investments more than any state. It has meant some crappy returns recently (net losses in 2015 -- we will see what they report for 2016, but hedge funds in general had a miserable year), on the back of really high management fees they have been paying (think crony capitalism). They essentially paid about a billion dollars in hedge fund fees in 2015. ... to lose money. I am not sure 2016 will have been much better.

    These large public pension funds are failing for a variety of reasons. In the case of Ohio, the system has been massively underfunded, so they are starting out behind the eight ball. On top of that, though, the biggest reason (aside from the underfunding) these public pension systems are in trouble is that the Federal Reserve has been robbing savers to rewarded debtors by suppressing interest rates in a feeble attempt for the last decade to prop up the debt-ridden economy they created in the first place. There is no risk-free rate of return available -- and these pensions were predicated on risk free rates of return (meaning 30-year treasuries for their purposes) of 7, 8 percent to grow their participants contributions. With the 30-year treasury pinned at 2, 3 percent (and as low as 1.5 percent) over the last 10 years, they are getting killed. It has forced many of them to become addicted to risk, which is a formula for disaster. It is the kind of thing that should have been unheard of for a pension system. They aren't supposed to gamble with their participants contributions.

    In the case of Ohio, in 2011, they decided to allocate a percentage to alternative investments (i.e. hedge funds) -- they are essentially being forced to gamble to try to make up their huge shortfalls. And they paid a fortune to do it -- the fees they have paid out have been very high; it's as if they were too stupid to even negotiate -- while picking some real dogs (said in hindsight). They lost money in 2015. I haven't seen results yet for 2016. But let's say that we are in an equity bubble right now because those manipulated interests rates the Federal Reserve is foisting on us have pushed more and more entities into risk assets. ... those kinds of bubbles always pop eventually; when the manipulation ends or when they just lose control and it pops in a disorderly way. And if that happens (and I obviously think it is inevitable), there are going to be pension funds that were pushed into riskier and riskier behavior because of the stupidity of the Federal Reserve, and they are going to take a bath -- meaning they not only won't have been earning what they needed to to meet their obligations, but they are going to lose principal. Add in that many of them are underfunded to begin with (including Ohio), and it's just not a pretty picture.

    In any case, If you want to see for yourself what was going in Ohio for 2015 (it just wasn't pretty), it's all in here: https://www.opers.org/pubs-archive/financial/cafr/2015 CAFR lowres.pdf
     
  6. Buck

    Buck Well-Known Member

    This comes across as an admonishment, which is not really the intent.
    I have people in my own family who labored under the delusion that SS would support them in retirement, despite attempts to help them understand otherwise.
    Now they are dealing with difficult circumstances.
     
  7. SpeedTchr

    SpeedTchr Well-Known Member

    Oh, I absolutely know that and didn't take your comment as scolding. Unfortunately, circumstances sometimes conspire. I have never had more than $16,000 in my "IRA" and even that got drained due to an emergency. I pay a shitload of SS (contractor for 20+ years), so I hope to one day get some back.
     
  8. KJIM

    KJIM Well-Known Member

    My father took early retirement something like 20 years ago. He sits on his butt and watches TV all day. He also day trades and between that and the latest craash he's gone from having close to a million banked to being completely dependent on SS.

    My mom got out a few months before she turned 65. Not forced out, had a bitch for a boss and couldn't stand it any longer. Now 72, she is on the go constantly; her daily emails tell me how she did in pickleball (or softball), where she ate lunch and how much yard work she's done. (Early in his retirement, my father planted hundreds of trees in their yard, which we said was a bad idea and now they're awful. She works to maintain them, but he doesn't do anything.) She won't let my father touch her money.

    I'll be forced out at 65 and should be in good shape. I max out the TSP annually, and socked a decent bunch away from before the gig I have now. Single no kids helps drastically. Plan is to buy a home around the age of 50 so it will be paid off by then, but not sure where that would be. My assumption is Florida, where I'm from, but could be anywhere.

    Have also learned that one benefit of my current job is that upon retirement -- even early retirement -- there is a program I can apply for that allows full-time temporary work gap positions worldwide. I've met several who've done it for 5-6 months out of the year. Salary and per diem. So that's now in the plan.
     
  9. cranberry

    cranberry Well-Known Member

    You're not alone, if it's any consolation. There's going to be a retirement crisis because far too few people are saving adequately during a time period when employers (with Congressional support) have been gradually shifting the financial burden of retirement directly to employees.

    I read recently that there existed more than 175,000 defined benefit plans across the country in 1983 and that number is down to fewer than 30,000 today. Meanwhile, a growing number of employers are reducing or abandoning altogether contributory 401k plans and a rapidly increasing number of people are self-employed, not necessarily of their own choosing.

    So millions of people have been basically on their own in terms of retirement savings the past 20 years ago and evidence suggests they're failing miserably at it.

    Apparently, many these folks just didn't foresee and plan accordingly for the 2008 economic crisis and other life catastrophes. Can you believe it?
     
  10. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    One thing that I feel I have vaguely heard about is that people have gotten smarter about carrying credit card debt. Mrs. Whitman and I are finally almost paid off after being over $50K a few years ago. I have around $3,500 left on a card and Mrs. Whitman has around $1,600 on one card and $1,100 on a no-interest card. I use a Chase Sapphire Visa for almost every purchase I can use a credit card for, but that's to accumulate cash back points and to simplify keeping track of our checking account. Next up: Student loan debt and saving for college. We also just bought a new car, but paid off another pretty much simultaneously. I have 140,000 miles on it and everyone makes fun of me, but I'll drive it until there are 300,000 miles or more on it if I can. Anyway, that credit card debt was a horrendous drag on saving for a while.
     
  11. BTExpress

    BTExpress Well-Known Member

    That car is barely even broken in.

    My 206,000-mile Honda will soon pass our 210,500-mile Lexus in odometer miles.

    Because the Lexus odometer stopped working nine years ago.
     
  12. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    That's how I feel, too. And it's a Prius that I just drive to the train station and back home every day, about 15 miles a day total. Mrs. Whitman had an '02 Escape until a few months ago. I wanted her to drive it until it wouldn't go any more, as well, but I guess you do need one really reliable family transporter.
     
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