Vegas casinos hate America

I've run those numbers in my head for a few years -- I do remain convinced that is the only way to make any real money in the casinos. Live there. Deep bankroll. Spread your action around.

Only play blackjack (or poker). Sports betting may have some glamour attached to it but the juice (5%) is too damn steep. At least blackjack can be under 1% if you know what you're doing and the rules aren't terrible (6-5 blackjack, for example).

 

Theoretically, morons making bad plays shouldn't hurt anyone but them. Also, how does a dealer who is worse affect your winning or losing, other than maybe grate on you?

 

As I mentioned earlier, lots of these probabilities have to be established empirically via simulation. The folks at wizardofodds.com used simulation to explore what they called the idiot-at-third-base myth. First they simulated a billion hands played perfectly by first- and third-base players and, no surprise, the losses were virtually identical. Then, they simulated another billion hands, this time with the first-base player playing perfect basic strategy but the third-base player continuing to do dumb plays (like always hitting 12 to 16). The third-base player's loss was 10% and the first-base player's loss was ... just as it was before (i.e., the house edge).

I've tried (but so far failed) to find some scholarly work on this, because it seems right up the alley of the cognitive bias people. The dynamic has to rest on the fact that memories of the third-base player's fuckups costing the table are more salient than those of the third-base player's fuckups helping the table.

 

Some addict at first base screamed at me after I hit a 12 against a 2 at third base. I drew a 7. Would have made the dealer bust. Next card gave the dealer a hand. Not enough to beat me but enough to beat the tilter at first base. He started screaming at me. I yelled back and told him if he couldn't afford to lose don't play. He is someone I've seen before at the local casino, so I don't know who he blames for losing all the rest of the money he loses.

 

12 vs 2 is tough, but I'd always hit it and split if I had 6s.

 

Yep. That's what you're supposed to do. Hard 12, you hit against everything except a 4, 5 or 6.

 

Theoretically it shouldn't, but it changes the sequence of the cards in the shoe. When you have a double down hand late in the hand and the moron in first or second position hits a 14 against a 5 and takes the high card that you need, it affects you. There are other scenarios where someone playing early in the hand can take bad hits and affect someone down the line. Sometimes it actually works, but more often than not it mucks everything up royally. And, usually, when it works once or twice is when it's most dangerous because it encourages more stupid (i.e., low percentage) play.

The dealer thing is more of an uncertainty, just something I've always heard helps you. I think it's less of an issue these days now that most casinos have brought in shuffling machines and gone away from hand shuffles.

 

Yeah, that's the thing. Plenty of people playing are just playing for a short time, so if the cards are changed by a person making a bad play, it doesn't matter if over a million hands it will even out. They need to win in those 20 hands.

Of course, if you get a blackjack on the next hand, no one thanks the guy hitting 15 against a 5.

 

But it doesn't affect you, is what dq is saying with the numbers.

I still get away, though. I know it all balances out mathematically in the end, but I get so agitated when it happens that I feel like it puts me on tilt and my own decision-making gets worse in the aftermath.

 

I don't count cards, so I don't even watch how the other players play ... I play my hand and then ogle any ogle-worthy types within range.

I hardly ever play blackjack anymore, though. Craps is more my style ... you stand there, you drink and laugh, and you don't really have to think.

 

About the only time I think about doing that is if everyone at the table, with three or more players, has those no-man's land hands (12-14 against a 2-6), where it's obvious they're not going to hit or shouldn't hit, but at the same time there are so many low cards that it the dealer probably has a 10 or 11 even with their bad up card.
In those situations it often seems like taking one card helps the table, whether it works for you individually or not. So I'll occasionally hit it and hope for the best. If it's just me or one other person I'll usually let it go and live with the outcome, but when there's a lot of people in the hand and no one hits it's ominous. I don't do it every time, and would only do it with a 12 or 13 and even then with some trepidation.
I'm sure there's a detailed mathematical formula explaining the wrongness of it and I don't really care. There are times it needs to be done.