Fantasy baseball 2017

Pitchers and catchers begin reporting next week, so it's time start gearing up for another season.

I've noticed that I typically end up competing for a title or completely washing out of a season. I generally play hard for the big prize, so it's no surprise, I suppose that it works out that way. I take big risks and if they pay off, I do well. If not, I'm near the bottom of the league. On the plus side, that results in either payouts or good draft positions, so I'd say it's better than middling my way to a 6th-place finish and first-round washout.

Both my seasons were complete disasters last year, so I'm hoping to rebound.

 

Looking at the roster in my auction league, I've got some work to do. My total salary as of now is 172, with a cap at 260. All players on the roster will have their salary increase by 5 before the draft. I'll have to shed some salary to gain some flexibility in the auction draft. Roster below with 2017 salaries listed (5 more than last season)
C: -
1B: Pujols (36)
2B: Pedroia (16)
3B: Frazier (21)
SS: Orlando Arcia (10)
OF: Blackmon (12)
OF: Buxton (13)
OF: Dahl (10)
OF: Piscotty (11)
DH: Eduardo Nunez (10) eligible at 3b, SS
Bench: Healy (10)
Bench: Herrera (10)
Bench: Kepler (10)

SP: Giolito (12)
SP: Musgrove (10)
SP: Alex Reyes (10)
SP: Salazar (12)
SP: Luke Weaver (10)
SP: DeLeon (6)
SP: Kuhl (10)
SP: V. Velasquez (10)
SP: Gray (13)
RP: Wade Davis (12)
RP: Brach (10)

Obviously, I'll need a catcher (I think Tommy Joseph qualified there last year). My pitching staff has a lot of potential, but a lot of question marks, too. I definitely plan to keep Giolito, Salazar, Velasquez, DeLeon and probably Musgrove and Reyes. Brach is valuable and Davis is expensive for a reliever, but he's my only proven bullpen guy.

I'm definitely keeping Frazier, Blackmon and Nunez, probably Piscotty and Dahl. I have to look deeper to see about keeping Pedroia. He was the seventh-ranked 2B last year and, among that group, his salary was fifth (only Altuve and Segura were cheaper). If he performs like that this year, it's wise money, but at his age, that's not a given.

 

Dahl should be one of your first picks.

 

I've already got a keeper list due next Wednesday. I had won three consecutive league championships, but the wheels fell off last year.

I've got some bats to build around with Arenado, Trea Turner, Marte and Miguel Cabrera, but my pitching stinks. I will end up keeping five starters from a really shaky group because we can hold on to 14 and the weekly lineup requires seven starters.

Zack Greinke and Danny Duffy are easy decisions. Greinke stunk last year, but his velocity wasn't off by that much and I think he has a bounce-back in him.

My remaining options all could be useful, but they could be a disaster as well.

I am going to keep three of the following.
Felix Hernandez
James Paxton
Matt Moore
Aaron Nola

Hernandez is supposedly in a new offseason conditioning program that could help him regain a little velocity and his secondary stuff is still good.

Paxton showed great promise after changing his mechanics last season.

Moore seems to be making progress and another year away from TJ surgery could help.

Nola looked great, then fell apart and had a sore elbow. If he is healthy, the upside is impressive. I was going to try to draft him back because I thought the lousy ERA in 2016 would allow him to fall a bit, but he has been on pretty much every sleeper list I've seen, eliminating any chance he files under the radar.

So, who would y'all keep?

 

I like Herrera at $10. Pedroia is a tough call at $16. I might move on because there is some depth at the position.

I agree with Songbird regarding Dahl. I would keep him at $10.

 

I'd stay away from the sore elbows regardless of upside.

 

Agreed, which is why I say my options suck. I've been digging up every bit of information I can on Nola and everything points to him being healthy, but it is tough to trust that before he starts pitching in games again.

 

Looks like at least one of my league's owners noted my need and figured he could steal away Miguel Cabrera.

The offer I got today was Jon Lester, Kenta Maeda and a third-round pick for Cabrera and a 10. This is a 10-team league and we protect 14 players with no restrictions. So the third-round pick is the equivalent of a 17th-rounder in a redraft.

Lester would be a big help, but I don't really want Maeda. I'm thinking of asking for Matt Carpenter or Carlos Santana along with Lester and the draft pick. Walks are a bigger deal with the categories in my league, so those guys would be better replacements for Cabrera than one would think on the surface.

Cabrera had quietly shown signs of decline in 2014 and 2015, but he was fantastic in 2016. Am I nuts to consider trading him at all?

 

If you can get Carpenter, great. But I'd take that offer. One elite pitcher. One very good pitcher. A draft pick.

Belichick has made a cottage industry building his great teams by stockpiling draft picks through trades.

Be like Belichick. You can be oolichick. Anyway, you can always find a hitter.

It's hard to compete in the pitching categories if you fall behind early.

 

Agree. That's a pretty good return for a guy who, as OOP noted, had shown signs of falling off before last season. He could very well go straight of the cliff any time, and even his expected production is not irreplaceable.

 

While there's depth at the position, I'm not sure how much of it will be available given that we can keep as many players as we want (with cap considerations, of course). Also, my league is chock full of Red Sox fans, who I could see overpaying to get "Petey."

That said, I do feel like that's a big chunk for a guy who could fall off this year. I'm definitely considering moving on, or at least dropping him and trying to get him back at the same salary as last year (or driving up the price on someone else who wants him).

 

Dahl can hit, and he's just getting started.