Fantasy baseball 2017

I've got him in my other league, too, as a last-round pick.

In that league, I have to pick five players from the roster below. Their 2017 draft positions in parentheses (no number means they were UFAs and will be kept in the 25th round). I've bolded players I'm considering keeping:
Bregman
Dahl
Maikel Franco (22)
Sano (23)
Grandal (15)
Gurriel
Judge
Kepler (22)
Machado (4)
Peraza
Jose Ramirez
Solarte
Swanson (21)
Trea Turner (16)
Zobrist (7)

Giolito (17)
J. DeLeon
Harvey (12)
Kuhl
Lynn
McCullers (20)
Musgrove
A. Reyes
Robbie Ray
D. Robertson (3)
J. Ross (12)
Urias (17)
V. Velasquez

I think I'm almost certainly going to keep Machado, even at that high of a draft position. He's a first-round talent and I have him under control for 2017 and 2018. He's about the only sure thing to produce big numbers on my roster.

After that, it's a matter of figuring out which prospects will turn into studs. I love Reyes and Urias. Giolito had the better pedigree, but his short stints in the majors last year were uninspiring and his velocity was apparently down all season. Not sure if that will negatively affect the perception of him and maybe I can pick him up later than round 17. McCullers really came on strong once he was healthy and finished with some good numbers. Velasquez struggled in August and September, but he's a 9K/9IP (or better) kind of guy when healthy.

Swanson, Dahl, Turner and Bregman are all emerging talents with the bat and Franco had a tough year but could still be a good value in the 22nd round.

 

My 5 from the bolded list:

Machado
Turner
Urias
Reyes
Bregman

The White Sox will take it slow with Giolito, and Reyes is a better prospect at this point anyway. No thought of keeping Sano?

 

Probably not on Sano. He struck out 178 times in 400 ABs last season and had an OBP of .319. My league does count strikeouts as a negative and that OBP was a killer last season. Prior to making a bunch of deals before the deadline, I had him penciled in as a keeper, but I stocked up so many prospects, I think I have better options.

Your list makes a lot of sense, particularly the first four. Bregman was on a 24 HR pace as a rookie, so I'm certainly intrigued by his potential.

 

Agreed. I'd definitely keep Dahl at that price.

Actually, trying to get him now in the deal I mentioned above, but it's not working. Got Miguel Cabrera on the table for Lester, Carpenter and a 2nd round pick. Think he's about to slip off the hook, but at worst, I keep Cabrera.

Edit: Done. I got Lester, Carpenter and a 2nd-round pick for Miguel Cabrera and a 7. I may hate myself for this one very soon.

 

I like the deal, OOP.

 

Finalizing my keepers...need two of the following to go with Donaldson, Cespedes and Archer:

Sano
Buxton
Eaton
Gausman
Urias
Fulmer
Swanson

I'm thinking about going young with Buxton and Urias.

 

10 of Dansby's 39 hits were for extra bases. There's probably something there.

48 of Sano's 103 hits were for extra bases. I really think he'll be a big HR bopper.

35 of Buxton's 67 hits were for extra bases, and I think he'll be a SB/R guy.

So one of those 3 guys and Urias.

 

Key, depends on how focused your league is on young players. If prospects are highly valued, then that makes some sense. Buxton was an elite prospect on the way up and finally showed some progress at the major-league level late last season.

If your league tends toward veterans, maybe keep Fulmer, who has shown more at the major-league level, and draft Urias later.

I do get keeping Urias over Fulmer, who wasn't the same level of prospect coming up and his metrics show that last year's results may have been at least a little fluky.

 

I get to keep 10:

*Gary Sánchez NYY - C
*Miguel Cabrera Det - 1B
*Robinson Canó Sea - 2B
Ryon Healy Oak - 3B
*Jean Segura Sea - 2B,SS
Andrew McCutchen Pit - OF
Justin Upton Det - OF
Evan Longoria TB - 3B
Adrián González LAD - 1B
*Grégory Polanco Pit - OF
*Matt Carpenter StL - 1B,2B,3B
Lorenzo Cain KC - OF
Michael Fulmer Det - SP
Marcus Stroman Tor - SP
Aarón Sánchez Tor - SP
Edwin Díaz Sea - RP
*Cole Hamels Tex - SP
*Max Scherzer Was - SP
*David Price Bos - SP
*Trevor Story Col - SS

* is how I'm leaning, but I'm not confident. I hope there would be an open enough market to turn some of those 2b-ss into OFs instead of keeping McCutchen & Upton, but who knows? Also, hard to give up on Fullmer, Stroman & Sanchez.
Any thoughts?

 

Bolded the guys I think you should keep. I think McCutchen will bounce back. I'm assuming you have a DH slot, so keeping Story, Cano and Segura shouldn't be an issue.

 

Because I already have the others, or are you down on carpenter?

 

I'm not a big Carpenter guy to begin with, so I may be a bit biased against him (somewhat inexplicably - I don't really have a reason for it), but yeah, Cano and Segura are better options at 2B, Miggy is better at 1B and I don't think he's got enough power to be your full-time 3B. He doesn't drive in a lot of runs, doesn't score a ton of runs and he doesn't steal bases. He's also 32, so he doesn't have much upside either.