Fantasy baseball 2017

*Gary Sánchez NYY - C
*Miguel Cabrera Det - 1B
*Robinson Canó Sea - 2B
Ryon Healy Oak - 3B
*Jean Segura Sea - 2B,SS
Andrew McCutchen Pit - OF
Justin Upton Det - OF
Evan Longoria TB - 3B
Adrián González LAD - 1B
*Grégory Polanco Pit - OF
*Matt Carpenter StL - 1B,2B,3B
Lorenzo Cain KC - OF
Michael Fulmer Det - SP
Marcus Stroman Tor - SP
Aarón Sánchez Tor - SP
Edwin Díaz Sea - RP
*Cole Hamels Tex - SP
*Max Scherzer Was - SP
*David Price Bos - SP
*Trevor Story Col - SS

Guy, I put the 10 I'd keep in bold, then realized it was the same 10 you chose. It would help to know a bit more about your league's format. Are these weekly lineups? How many are active in each spot?

I may be biased toward Carpenter because I just traded for him, but I think he was on his way to a consolidation year before getting hurt last season and perhaps that happens in 2017. He has shown the ability to hit for average and to hit for power. For part of last season, he was doing both.

I wouldn't feel bad about letting Fulmer go. I think he has a big regression coming. If you feel like you need another outfielder, keep McCutchen and drop Carpenter.

 

Roster Positions:C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, Util, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL, DL,
Batters Stat Categories:Runs (R), Home Runs (HR), Runs Batted In (RBI), Stolen Bases (SB), Walks (BB), Batting Average (AVG), On-base Percentage (OBP), Slugging Percentage (SLG)
Pitchers Stat Categories:Wins (W), Losses (L), Saves (SV), Hits (H), Walks (BB), Strikeouts (K), Earned Run Average (ERA), (Walks + Hits)/ Innings Pitched (WHIP)

Very strange format. Big rosters but small lineups don't value depth.

 

Given all of that, my list of recommendations stands.

 

I've got a keeper list due tonight. Thought I'd run it by SJ.com's fantasy crew. This is the league I was talking about above. There are 10 teams. We keep 14 each year with no limits. We can keep a player forever if we want. Starting pitching is at a premium with seven of them active each week. So are outfielders with four spots.

Offensive stats: HR, RBI, runs, hits, walks, SB, OPS, extra-base hits
Pitching stats: ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, wins, innings pitched, batting average against, saves, holds

Here's a list with the players I'm considering, with my current choices in bold. Some might seem odd until you look at the stats we use and consider my desire to get my team younger.

C Gattis
1B Matt Carpenter (also 2B/3B)
3B Nolan Arenado
CI Jake Lamb
2B Jason Kipnis
SS Jonathan Villar (2B/3B)
MI Trea Turner (2B/OF)
OF Starling Marte
OF A.J. Pollock
OF Odubel Herrera
OF Yasmany Thomas

SP Jon Lester
SP Zack Greinke
SP Danny Duffy
SP Aaron Nola
SP James Paxton
SP Felix Hernandez
SP Matt Moore

Thoughts?

Edit: Changed to reflect my cut list is due tonight.

 

WTF? I thought I posted that last night. Oops.

Related question. Any thoughts on trading Starling Marte for Brian Dozier. I might try making a last-minute pitch. I don't need another infielder, but I do need more power and Marte's lack of walks are a significant drawback in our league. I'm just not sure how much I trust Dozier.

 

List looks solid. I'd hate to have a guy like Duffy on my roster, though. He's so wildly inconsistent, he can be maddening. He pitched like shit the final six weeks or so of last season. Could be fatigue, but I don't think he's all that good. If he were 25, I'd think about keeping him, but given that he's 28 (not much younger than Felix), I'd keep Felix and hope he stays healthy.

 

Day 2 of Spring Training and I lost one of my best players on both teams for the season. Glad it happened before we selected keepers. Fantasy Baseball injury reaction: Alex Reyes goes down, gives Luke Weaver a path

Looks like I'll end up keeping Weaver in my auction league. I may try to draft Reyes for $1 and stash him on the DL all season.

 

I've had people tell me I should keep Hernandez over Nola or Paxton, but not Duffy. Even with the late slump, his overall numbers were pretty good last year. Also, he is eligible at RP in my league, which is an advantage.

I still may make room for Hernandez. I keep reading good things about his offseason work. He started working with Robinson Cano's trainer and got much stronger. He actually looks leaner, but put on 20 pounds. Maybe the improved conditioning will bring back some of the velocity he lost. I was thinking about dropping Nola or Lamb. I do have the third overall pick, so there is a good chance I draft back the player I cut.

Thanks for the feeback.

 

That sucks. As you said, better now than after you put in the keeper list. I had a bit of both last year. I lost Lance Lynn before keepers were due, then Pollock the day before my draft.

I'd stay away from Reyes. I'm betting it is at least two years before he is worth owning again.

 

I had Duffy for two seasons and he drove me nuts, so I could be biased against him. Nola is young and I think he can be very good. I like his upside far better than Duffy, who I think will always be inconsistent. Nola was nasty for the first couple months last year, until that elbow injury cropped up. If he's healthy this year, I think he'll be better than Duffy.

I don't know much about Paxton, but I think he's projected to do better than Duffy by CBS and Yahoo, for what that's worth.

 

Paxton has been frustrating, but he's a popular breakout candidate. He changed his mechanics last year and gained velocity and control. He had an amazing K/BB ratio the last two months. There is good reason for the strong projection.

I was ready to roll with the list above until I read another story about Hernandez today. We don't draft until April 1, so if he has a great spring, he won't even make it to me at No. 3 overall.

Oh well. Got three more hours to think about it.

 

I'd definitely keep Felix, even acknowledging that after 11 seasons, 2016 could be more than just an outlier.

No matter how good Duffy is during Spring Training, he'll probably go somewhere in the middle rounds, say 8-12 (he's only been drafted once in my leagues, in Round 20, by me in 2015). You'll have an opportunity to draft him back, if you believe in him.

If Felix is electric, he's going to go in the top five rounds. If he struggles, someone will take him no later than the middle rounds just on reputation and hope for a bounceback year. For that reason alone, it's probably worth it to hang onto Felix.

When I'm faced with decisions like this, I usually pick the guy who I'll be most pissed off that I didn't take if he plays well.

Will you hate yourself more for dropping a future HOFer who has had two sub-par seasons in an 11-year career, or for dropping a 28-year-old who has been inconsistent his entire career?

I'd say your decision is among Duffy, Nola and Paxton, and given their ages and performance history, Duffy would be the first on the chopping block for me.