Fantasy baseball 2017

I would also keep Felix, even though I have concerns with him. Paxton doesn't really have the upside for me to justify keeping him over Felix. I would also keep Felix ahead of Duffy, but would probably keep Nola ahead of him.

 

Paxton's average fastball velocity improved about two MPH to 97 after he changed his arm slot last season. You've got a lefty who throws 97, greatly improved his command with the mechanical change and his FIP in 2016 was 2.80. He is far from a sure thing, but the upside is outstanding.

Nola doesn't have Paxton's stuff, but he has always shown fantastic command. He looked like a stud, then fell apart. They elbow soreness showed up later, but I'm guessing he wasn't right when he fell apart.

Duffy also fell off after looking like an ace for a while, so I can see the concern.

Hernandez's history isn't what gives me pause. If I cut Duffy and he dominates I'll find that every bit as frustrating as if I cut Hernandez. I had read about the new conditioning program and it made me wonder, because he did seem a bit out of shape. Then I read the stories from yesterday and saw the pictures and realized there might actually be reason to believe he can get a little bit of that velocity back, enough to make his fastball viable again.

A guy in my league calls pitchers like mine scratch-offs. Maybe you get lucky and they pay off big, but you really don't know. That is why I traded for Lester, to have somebody I trust to build a staff around.

Ain't this stuff fun?

Edit: Tried to make a last-minute deal with Paxton to no avail, so he's going to be the cut. I just hope I can get him back with the No. 3 overall pick. I love his upside, but he has a significant injury history and he really isn't that much younger than Hernandez.

 

OK, here's what happens when you have the unfortunate convergence of a too early draft, no preparation, and being in and out of the draft on a Sunday afternoon for a deep league (17 teams, 30 rounds).
I may have set the record for drafting the highest percentage of players without a job.


Round Pick Player Position
1. (4) Nolan Arenado 3B
2. (31) Robinson Canó 2B
3. (38) Giancarlo Stanton OF
4. (65) Jacob deGrom P
5. (72) Chris Davis 1B
6. (99) Jonathan Lucroy C,1B
7. (106) Jackie Bradley Jr. OF
8. (133) Dellin Betances P
9. (140) Matt Harvey P
10. (167) Marcus Stroman P
11. (174) Julio Urías P
12. (201) James Paxton P
13. (208) Byron Buxton OF
14. (235) Héctor Neris P
15. (242) Trevor Bauer P
16. (269) Didi Gregorius SS
17. (276) Koji Uehara P
18. (303) Brad Ziegler P
19. (310) Zack Cozart SS
20. (337) Steve Pearce 1B,2B,OF
21. (344) Luis Severino P
22. (371) Lucas Giolito P
23. (378) Adam Lind 1B
24. (405) Michael Bourn OF
25. (412) Chase Headley 3B
26. (439) Pedro Álvarez 3B
27. (446) John Jaso 1B
28. (473) Adam Rosales 2B,3B,SS
29. (480) Jeremy Hazelbaker OF
30. (507) Boone Logan P

Roster Positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, Util, Util, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL
Batters Stat Categories: Runs (R), Home Runs (HR), Runs Batted In (RBI), Stolen Bases (SB), On-base Percentage (OBP), Slugging Percentage (SLG)
Pitchers Stat Categories: Wins (W), Saves (SV), Strikeouts (K), Holds (HLD), Earned Run Average (ERA), (Walks + Hits)/ Innings Pitched (WHIP)

 

I actually think you did pretty well.

 

Not sure I can actually field a starting lineup, but thanks.

 

It's tough to say without comparing to the other rosters in your league, but I also didn't think it was that bad.

 

Thoughts on keeping Byron Buxton at $11? Seems high given his overall lack of production last season, but he finished out the year strong and I'm wondering if he's figuring things out.

 

How about Kepler at $8 and Tommy Joseph at $8?

 

Of those three options, I prefer Buxton at $11. He is not far removed from being the top prospect in the game and I like the progress he showed late last season.

You are talking about three guys with low floors so I'd go with the highest upside, and that is Buxton.

 

I can keep any or all of them. Wondering if they're worth it.

I'm with you on Buxton, glad to hear someone confirm what I was thinking. Someone else dropped him last year and when he got hot, I picked him up on a flier. If nothing else, I can always drop him and save $11 toward my cap.

I feel like Joseph can pop 30 HRs and, at $8, that would be a steal. I'm thinking though, that I could probably drop him and pick him up at $3 or $4. I haven't done much reading yet, so I don't know if he's landing on any sleeper lists. That will probably affect my decision on him.

 

I've seen Joseph on a few lists, but most of them were deep sleepers. he does have power, but home runs have been devalued a bit in fantasy leagues just as they are in MLB. Notice how some of the power hitters available had trouble finding the contracts they wanted. General managers for real teams realized that last year's power numbers were inflated, with 38 players hitting at least 30 home runs. The point being, that 30-home run season certainly still helps, but it isn't as valuable as it might have been two or three years ago.

You obviously know your league better, but it might be worth taking the shot on getting Joseph (or somebody better) at or below that price tag.

 

I've been looking through the other teams and there aren't many 30 HR-type 1Bs who are likely to get cut. I'll be dropping Pujols (possibly trying to pick him back up), Adrian Gonzalez should be available, but beyond that, there's not much out there. Guys like Greg Bird, who I think could hit 20-25 as a rookie, are already owned cheaply, too.

That said, I think Joseph might fly under the radar and I might be able to pick him back up for at or below $8. Just not sure if I want to risk it, given the relative lack of quality 1Bs who will be available.