President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

Christ, why is it that EVERY time someone calls bullshit on what is obvious numerical sophistry. ... the answer is like some of the people on here when they do their, "Well, what about Hillary"? Or "What about Obama?"

Obama's budgets were silly with rosy assumptions. That has zero to do with the ridiculous set of assumptions in this budget, Nick!

I usually count on Larry Summers to come up with some kind of political hackistry. But he was 100 percent right about one thing.

It's bad enough that they are proposing reducing revenues and they have come up with the bullshit that it will be offset by unrealistic economic growth from rainbow and tooth fairy land. But what they are doing is double counting their dubious benefit!

First, they are saying tax cuts are going to bring about growth (and ridiculously unrealistic growth, given the economic malaise we are in and the reasons for it). Fine. And at the same time, they are claiming that the tax cuts don't cost in overall revenue. It's unadulterated nonsense. It defies logic.

Summers had it right. It's akin to buying a company under the assumption that you will make investments that increase the profits. ... but then putting out a projection that calculates those increased profits by counting the higher revenues . ... while ignoring the costs of the investments that were supposedly the impetus for that increased revenue.

On top of it, in the case of the business. ... an investment might actually generate more in revenue than the investment cost. That is why businesses do capital expenditures. When it comes to government bullshit? Those tax cuts never bring in enough revenue via growth to offset the cut.

Either way, though, the investment has a COST. Their bullshit just ignores the cost. It's ridiculous.

 

Serious answer. There is less detail in what I saw of this stupidity than in past budgets. I actually look at them. Every one of them is nonsense. You are right about that. Even if you could assume overly optimistic economic growth 10 years in the future (nobody can forecast 2 quarters ahead with accuracy, let alone years in the future), inflation expectations, and unemployment that far out. ... they use very optimistic numbers to get to where they want.

THIS, however, takes it to a level WAY beyond the usual bullshit. There is a reason why Obama's budgets always used CBO growth projections (which are unrealistic to begin with), and still showed deficits for as far as the eye could see (just not deficits as big as what they knew they were saddling us with).

The CBO is projecting 1.9 percent growth heading forward. It's overly optimistic given that we have put ourselves into what is a permanent malaise with a central bank having more control over our economy (and the sinkhole it put it in) than anything this administration could possibly effect with tax cuts and reduction of regulation. That 1.9 percent is rosy, in that it would take some serious growth to begin with for us to even reach that from the malaise we are in. These bullshit artists threw a 3 percent growth projection into their nonsense based on something that is impossible -- it's not even credible in unicorn land. Those numbers might not sound like a big difference to the average person, but it is YUGE, as the idiot-in-chief would put it.

As an aside, no economist on Wall Street is projecting anything close to that kind of growth. They are looking at a range of 1 to 1.5 percent growth -- and THEY tend to be overly optimistic. We are in year 8 of a business cycle recovery. To believe this budget, you have to believe that the business cycle no longer exists, we will not see a recession again anytime soon. ... and on top of it, they are going to spur unrealistic growth like pulling a rabbit out of Trump's hair.

At least with Obama's budgets, there was an element of truth in it, in that they were saying, "We are going to run up huge amounts of debt." They bullshitted to try to make it look like less debt, but there was that basic level of honesty -- this is what we are doing.

These bullshit artists are promising the impossible. Tax cuts, no spending reductions (in the aggregate). ... and no massive increase in debt. On a basic level, anyone with a brain should know this: They have taken 60 to 70 percent of our spending off the table ... medicare and social security, which are bankrupting us can't be touched. On top of it, they are proposing spending significantly more on defense and a stupid wall. And on top of it they are proposing reducing Federal receipts via tax cuts. How the fuck is it possible to do that. ... and NOT send the debt spiraling? Their bullshit goes way beyond anything the last few presidents threw out there.

On top of it, this bs would have been possible 10 years ago. ... before the last president doubled our debt. But everyone (not just this administration) is living a fantasy if they think this goes on much longer. We are very close to having FORCED cuts. So on top of it being sophistry. ... it's just irresponsible. It's Nero fiddling.