Running 2017 MLB regular season thread

Pitchers have a little more control over what happens than people tossing a coin, so that comparison doesn't hold up at all.

 

But we can independently measure what they can control.

The coin analogy is apt as a response to the particular point, which was that "what happened" in an isolated situation is important in distinguishing between two pitchers. If pitchers are not skilled at pitching in particular situation, though, as compared to others, then measuring their results in those situations is no more telling than measuring my results at flipping a coin.

 

No, it really isn't. Also, earned run average isn't the equivalent of two flips of a coin. If you compare the earned run averages of two pitchers this season, for example, you are using over 140 innings in some cases.

 

You are responding to an imaginary post.

 

A few years ago, this person performed a study to see which metrics were best predictive of second half ERA. Granted, it was only for 100 pitches and one season, but interesting nonetheless. The rankings:

Occam’s Razor and pitching statistics

1. K-BB/IP
2. SIERA
3. xFIP
4. FIP
5. ERA
6. tERA ("True ERA." Has something to do with batted ball speed and trajectory? I think it was a work in progress at the time. Obviously.)

 

No, I'm responding to your post.

 

You really, really are not.

 

Predicting future performance is not the same as measuring current performance.

 

You tried to make a comparison that doesn't hold up, now you want to run from it. Nothing new there.

 

I'm not running from anything. I stand by it 100 percent. I didn't say that "ERA is the equivalent of a coin flip," and that was not within 30 area codes of the point I was making.

 

We have been through this a million times. But for old time's sake:

If a statistic is more predictive, then by definition it does a better job of measuring the aspects of performance that a pitcher can actually control. Thus, it measures current performance more accurately, as well.

 

That would be true if performance was consistent at all times, but it isn't. Players have slumps. Players get hurt. Players improve or decline.