Running 2017 MLB regular season thread

Except that it is. I'd reconstruct the entire comparison, but you'll just tap dance away like you always do in these situations.

 

More predictive.

Not unassailably predictive.

 

No, it's not.

Go ahead.

 

Your begging the question by defining current performance as the sum of all the component statistics rather than the result in terms of runs allowed. We cannot tell for every pitcher why ERA varies from xFIP for a single season. You can point to some component statistics, but that doesn't mean those were the particular reasons for the variance.

Again, if you want to use xFIP or whatever stat to say that some pitcher should have a better ERA over the next 81 games, fine. But I want a description of what happened, not what he should have happened.

 

Woah, woah, woah, woah, woah.

You've made reference to something like this a few times, and I have to object.

If you go back and look at the Lester discussion, I have used various statistics and rates to try to account for the difference between his ERA and other metrics. I'm not wedded to a statistic that is the "sum of all the component statistics." Not at all. Like ERA, they are a starting point, and that's how I've treated them.

Yes, they are more predictive than ERA. Otherwise, they wouldn't exist. No, none is the end-all, be-all.

And that's useful as far as it goes, but, again, you are defining "what happened" as how many runs the pitcher allowed, specifically how many earned runs, as defined by MLB's rules on that.

I might define "what happened" as the skills-based metrics, stripped to the degree each can be of defense, sequencing and other randomness not necessarily attributable to the pitcher.

 

I came on here to see if anyone mentioned that the Royals got swept. Wee!

 

2014!

 

Oh, I knew that reply was coming! Believe me... you dog!

 

This is an incredible photo:

 

What in the hell is the guy in the bottom center looking at?

I have a theory.

 

I think he had maybe reached out for it and was falling back into the wall.

 

Maybe, but the whole looking to his left bothers me. I think he might have had a late reaction, had no idea where the ball was, and reacted based on the lady near him holding her cap out.