I thought they would have had a better career...

The Bruce Willis thread reminded me that there are any number of people you forget were once tabbed "the next big thing" Penny Hardaway (the lil' Penny ads were better than he was), actors who suddenly are working with directors you've never heard of, writers and musicians who "peaked" artistically early (Sheryl Crowe, Sebastian Junger).
Sure - things happen (injuries, drugs, wanting to do other things) - but I figured Edward Norton was a lock to someday win an Oscar after seeing him in Primal Fear and some of his early films, now not so much.

 

Maybe not "the next big thing," but I hoped to see a lot more of Traci Wolfe after "Lethal Weapon."

 

My brother and I were talking about the band Live the other night. He made the point that if you had asked him in the mid-90s, whether Live or Green Day would be playing Wrigley Field in August, 2017, he would have picked Live without hesitation.

Gordon Beckham comes to mind in sports. Top 10 draft pick and top 20 prospect and was outstanding after coming up mid-season. Twenty-three going on 43, maturity-wise. And never hit again.

 

Musically, isn't Jobriath the cover child for next big things? There was a ton of build up for a guy who apparently had zero commercial talent or appeal.

As for movies, Lindsay Lohan comes to mind. She was considered a superstar in the making before falling out.

There are so many in sports that I can even begin to choose a legit true leader.

 

That's definitely true. Beckham springs to mind because he's on my team, first of all. And, second of all, because he had checked every box. College star. Lofty draft pick. "Baseball America" ranked him high. Then he came up and hit for a half season. And then, nothing. It seems that the classic busts stumble somewhere along those early steps and it clues you in that they might not be what you thought they would be. Either they weren't a high draft pick or an extremely highly regarded prospect - Aaron Judge comes to mind. If he comes crashing down to earth, I don't know that we'll be super-surprised. Or when they come up, they can't hit major league pitching (Domonic Brown) or, in football, for example, have accuracy issues or arm strength issues right out of the box.

 

How about Justin Guarini.

 

Injuries and drug problems are easy to figure out - sometimes you'll see an actor book three or four big roles with A list directors seemingly out of nowhere and either it's learned they can't "open" a movie or they end up back doing supporting roles.

 

Matthew McConaughey was speed-bound for this thread until a couple years ago.

 

Kyle Petty was primed to be the Next Big Thing for a couple of years and then all of a sudden it was like he forgot how to work the accelerator.

 

Marco Andretti is his analogue in IndyCar, right down to the pedigree.

 

I think they named this award after Gretchen Mol.

 

Doesn't it happen in politics, too? I think back to Jim Thompson from my childhood in Illinois. As a federal prosecutor, he put a bunch of key people in the old Daley machine behind bars, then ran for governor as a Republican and was elected age 40 in 1976 with almost 65 percent of the vote despite the GOP's hangover from Watergate. A lot of people figured it was a stepping-stone on the way to the White House, and he did nothing to discourage that speculation. Instead, he wound up being a solid-but-unspectacular governor for 14 years (because it was Illinois, one of his main accomplishments was that he wasn't indicted) and never became a serious presidential or even VP candidate. Was a very good run, just not the superstar career he seemed headed for.