Fantasy baseball 2017

I did go with Gonzalez, though since Houston is off today I have until tomorrow to make a final decision since the roster isn't locked until that team plays a game. I don't think we'll get much more info by tomorrow. He's in El Paso with the Grizzlies and is expected there until Thursdasy. My other issue will be the looming Cabrera suspension, but I have a feeling it will get knocked down to three games. Hard to sit him.

I do wish we were allowed that second-week change, but rules are rules.

 

If it's an ongoing league, that seems like something to suggest for future seasons.

My keeper league has winter meetings so we can set a draft date and discuss potential rule changes. It also sparks offseason trade talk.

 

So a five-month regular season came down to last night's Yankees/Red Sox game. I went into the week in 2nd place, needing to outscore the first-place team by three category wins. Entering the night game, I led my opponent 10-3, while he was tied 6-6 with his opponent. He had Mitch Moreland and David Robertson going, and could have potentially flipped R, HR and SV+H categories. I had Severino and could capture the W category, but I was putting WHIP at risk (I held a slight 1.09-1.10 edge in the category entering the game.

Severino pitched his ass off and got me the W category, Moreland and Robertson didn't do anything and I pulled ahead to win the regular-season title by one game. $100 payday for that, now setting my eyes on the $500 for the league championship.

 

Congrats. I had no such luck. Injuries gutted my pitching staff right before the playoffs and my opponent put together a monster week to knock me out in the first round last week.

I'm already on to tinkering with keeper ideas.

 

Ouch, that's a shitty way to go out.

 

Yup, but sometimes it happens. I had the league's best pitching until half my staff broke.

Of course, after a season of disappointment, Matt Carpenter finally admitted he has been playing through sharp pains in his shoulder all season. Bastard.

 

Into week 2 of the playoff, and my 100-point lead was steadily evaporating yesterday until J.D. Martinez went bonkers.

Up 99 points with six days to play. We have the same amount of pitcher starts remaining, though I'm using three relievers to his two, so I'll have more save opportunities. I'm also somehow up despite Miguel Cabrera being suspended and terrible for the week. Logan Morrison is carrying me. So is Welington Castillo. And Dylan Bundy had 49 points in one start and -2 in another. It's a damn roller coaster ride. Sometimes this thing is dumb luck and your role players getting stupid hot at the right time. I'm definitely not comfortable though. Maybe if I'm still up 100 by Saturday ...

 

So Schwarber got dropped in my league again (this time for Washington's Double-A prospect Victor Robles, who just got called up). I'm going to have an opening in my lineup this weekend when Willson Contreras returns, and I drop Robinson Chirinos. I'm exploring whom to add. Guys like Trey Mancini, Kevin Kiermeier, Matt Olson and Jose Martinez are all available (and all are hotter than Schwarber).

With five months gone in the season, we've got a pretty good sample size on Schwarber and, barely above the Mendoza line, he looks like Just Another Guy in the OF now that he's lost C eligibility. His OBP is down 40 points from his rookie year, as is his wOBA and BA. His K rate is slightly up, and walk rate is slightly down.

On the other hand, his ISO remains similar to his rookie season, his average exit velocity of 89MPH is above league average, his launch angle of 18 degrees is solid and his HR rate (one every 15.5 ABs) isn't far off 2015 (1/14.5 ABs). His second half numbers are also much more in line with his 2015 numbers.

So I guess the question becomes, can he improve those numbers over a full season and become an elite OF (offensively, of course, since he's a total disaster out in left) who's worth taking a chance on right now? Or is Kiermeier a better option as the current hot hand, or is Mancini going to become a stud? What about Olson?

 

I'm not sure what to think of Olson yet. The power seems to be legit. He showed it in the minors as well. That said, he could be another one of those guys who can't keep his average above .240 for a full season even with all the home runs.

Mancini was not a great prospect, but he has been very solid all year. I like him, but I'm not sure how much upside is there. The same holds for Kiermeier. If you are figuring in production the rest of the season, I'd take Mancini. If you are only concerned about the long term, I might roll the dice on Olson.

 

I'm up 824.5-679.5 with two days left in the semifinal. Neither of us have a pitcher start remaining. I have three closers to his two. There doesn't seem to be a conceivable path to victory for him. Yet all I can think of is Atlanta 28, New England 3. Such is life when you lose in the semis every year. Won't be convinced I'm actually through until the final pitch is thrown tomorrow.

 

I was leading by 50 heading into the weekend, but then Alex Wood and Kyle Barrclough both imploded on Saturday to narrow the differential to 20 points. I had Wacha going against Pitt yesterday, but I was unsure whether to start him. He had a rough August and a blowup yesterday could have cost me. I decided to run him out there and I won the week going away. On to the semifinals.

 

Congrats. I ended up winning by about 80. My starting pitching was the difference. My SPs had more than 100 points more than his did, so that's the margin right there.

Trying to decide between Trumbo, Schebler and Piscotty for my final utility spot this week. Leaning Schebler. Trumbo hasn't been great this year and Piscotty tends to go through huge slumps. Schebler seems to be the most consistent. Would love to plug Carlos Gomez in for the finals, but he's likely to miss a week with a high ankle sprain. Volume is key in this league, and as noted before, I can't make any changes during the two weeks. Once the games start tonight, the rosters are set.