President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

Priors can mean many things, but in this instance I strongly suspect he's referring to certain methodological "givens" he's operating/operated with. You might, for example, assume a certain distribution of D vs. R poll respondents in the lead-up to the election, and that's how you'd interpret rolling poll reports.

Similarly, if you're indulging your inner Bayesian (and who wouldn't want to?), you start out with certain "prior probabilities" (e.g., the generic R would get 52% in Alabama) and then as poll results unfold you update (arriving at "posterior" probabilities) by taking into account the new information.

 

Now do David Pecker and Dylan Howard.

 

Baffled DNC Plant Roy Moore Not Sure What Else He Could Have Done To Defame Republican Party
HUNTSVILLE, AL—Scanning his mind for any minority groups he could have demonized more forcefully, Alabama Senate candidate and secret Democratic operative Roy Moore admitted Tuesday that he wasn’t sure what else he could have done to destroy the Republican Party’s reputation. “When Nancy [Pelosi] sent me here, I was convinced that revealing myself as a pedophile would be more than enough, but now I’m just at a loss,” said Moore, who admitted he thought DNC chair Tom Perez was going over the top by suggesting he say gay marriage had made the U.S. the source of all evil, but that didn’t even budge the polls. “I mean, I stood on a stage and wistfully recalled the era in which slavery existed in this country. What else am I supposed to do? I’ve been really digging deep to vilify the GOP and make myself unelectable, but I still might win.” At press time, Moore was kicking himself for not sabotaging himself more egregiously by claiming he supported a ban on assault weapons.

 

This instance is the only one I’m aware of in which someone accused the president of insensitivity or a lack of seriousness.

 

Replacement announced tomorrow say local media.

This seat is in play in the next election if Trump hangs on.

 

Do you think he won’t? This is a silly post.

 

Wondered about this and whether Alabama has a law similar to the one that got Lou Holtz whacked in Arkansas. Holtz had become tight with great Christian conservative patriot Jesse Helms while Holtz was at NC State. Years later, while coach at Pig Soooie University, he endorsed Helms in a re-election fight. Perhaps the one against Harvey Gantt. At any rate, he was whacked for violating a law forbidding public officials from overt political activity. The Arkansas version of the Hatch Act, I guess.

 

Consistent with the knowledge base of the average Trumpist/Moore voter.

 

If you read the 538 Twitter feed, you see enough exit polling info to suggest an easy Moore win and a short night, however.

 

It's not a silly post. He literally hasn't resigned.

And, since he announced his intention to resign, we've seen folks like Morning Mika grow more upset about Al's plight.

The New York Times published an op-ed from far out left wing law professor Zephyr Teachout, who primaried Andrew Cuomo in 2014, where she laments Al's treatment.

Dayton's prepared to name a successor, but that's not in coordination with Franken. It's based only on Franken's previously stated intention to resign.

Franken still hasn't set a date, and I think it's pretty clear he's waiting to see what happens tonight in Alabama, and may even be working behind the scenes to drum up the support of people like Mika and Zephyr.

I care passionately about #MeToo. Women are routinely demeaned, dismissed, discouraged and assaulted. Too many women’s careers are stymied or ended because of harassment and abuse. In politics, where I have worked much of my adult life, this behavior is rampant.

I also believe in zero tolerance. And yet, a lot of women I know — myself included — were left with a sense that something went wrong last week with the effective ouster of Al Franken from the United States Senate. He resigned after a groundswell of his own Democratic colleagues called for him to step down.

Zero tolerance should go hand in hand with two other things: due process and proportionality. As citizens, we need a way to make sense of accusations that does not depend only on what we read or see in the news or on social media.

Due process means a fair, full investigation, with a chance for the accused to respond. And proportionality means that while all forms of inappropriate sexual behavior should be addressed, the response should be based on the nature of the transgressions.

Both were missing in the hasty call for Senator Franken’s resignation. Some might point out, rightly, that Congress doesn’t have good procedures for dealing with harassment accusations. In fact, the congressional process to date has gone something like this: Lift up the rug and sweep the accusations underneath. It’s delay, deny, pay hush money and avoid the consequences.

Instead, here’s what a fair system might look like: Congress should empower an independent arbiter to investigate complaints — like a Government Accountability Office, with trained experts in the field. Clearly understood mechanisms for reporting should be established. A timetable should be set that ensures complaints receive a prompt response. Both the accuser and the accused could submit questions and would have access to trained advocates and free legal consultation.

The independent arbiter would then make a nonbinding proposal addressing what happened and what should be done. It could include a call to resign or for censure, or a range of other responses tailored to the findings.

 

Zephyr Teachout?

 

Other than that...