President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

Much can change in the next 8-10 months. But that’s a scary number for the GOP.

Since the 2016 election, Dems have some big wins, obviously in Alabama and Virginia.

But the margin cuts in deep red districts are worth watching. I’m not one for moral victories, but the math is worth watching after tightening races in Georgia, Oklahoma, etc.

Maddow had an interesting segment tonight on Iowa (probably in @tapintoamerica link above, haven’t read it yet).

Four state races last night in deep red Iowa districts. Rs still won. But each margin was cut by 30-plus points.

Again, a moral victory is still a loss. But those trend lines, if applied to tight races across the country, are significant for 2018.

Which explains why republicans reek of desperation as they try to discredit Mueller. The sound bites from today’s hearing with Rosenstein were pathetic.

To Rosenstein’s credit, he did not take the whining seriously.

 

I forget which pundit said it last night but it was along the lines of "if you are a Republican up for re-election in 2018 and your margin last time was under 10 points, you weren't going to sleep very well."

 

Do these idiots realize Mueller is a Republican ... because they should you know. He's a Republican in a way that fake Republican Donald Trump isn't.

 

He’ll be gone soon.

 

I'm very curious to see what things look like for Trump come early January. That's about when Congressmen will start seriously thinking about 2018, and there is just nothing about 2018 that should make Republicans comfortable.

Off-year elections after a presidential victory are always bad for the President's party, and Trump is making it so much worse. The generic ballot average is D+11 right now, and we've seen repeatedly in special elections that Democratic turnout is fired up to unprecedented levels. And the recruitment gap is just as big, with high-profile Democrats in purple or medium-red states lining up and Republican incumbents retiring at a high rate.

But to counterpoint, the good news is that when you control the entire federal government, you can lose a lot and still be ahead. After the 2018 election, Republicans will control the Presidency and the Supreme Court for sure, and 99.5% chance they'll control the Senate. They're not going to get a lot done, but they're not getting a lot done now, so maybe they don't care that much that the caucus meetings in the House will be 20% sparser.

The Senate is such a nightmare for Democrats. They can drool over Arizona and Nevada all they want, they've still got to worry about defending incumbents in Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and West Virginia. Even in a blue wave, defending half of those successfully would be a very nice result.

 

Not so fast there, comrade ...

 

Turns out Christians are also upset about Trump's proclamation on Jerusalem.

Trump’s move on Jerusalem thrilled evangelicals but enraged Mideast Christians

 

I suspect that the Secret Service isn't going to play the reality TV game in a case like that.

 

Good. Now do Trump.

 

Can’t quibble with a single point here. 2018 is an uphill climb for Dems, for sure.

The momentum is there. The enthusiasm is there.

But the current missing ingredients are good candidates and good message.

There’s time to do that. But a wave doesn’t happen without it.

 

The problem for the GOP incumbents, distance yourself from Trump and risk losing a primary. Buddy up to him and risk losing the general.