President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

Anybody here in favor of the United States joining forces with moderates in an Iranian civil war? Just wondering.

 

Interesting word choice.

I'm currently reading a book published in 1985, a series of essays by Stephen Cohen. In it he demonstrates an inherent bias in the language American media use to separate "good" from "bad", even when describing the same thing. It was written about the Soviet Union, but it could just as easily apply to any nation we deem as "evil" (such as Iran).

And it could just as easily be written today.

 

What’s an Iranian moderate? Nuke Israel rather than poison gas
Is Mike Pence an Iranian moderate ?

 

That’s a Baronesque framing of the situation.

 

Just an honest question because that appears to be the neocon wet dream of the moment. What do you think our level of involvement should be in Iran’s destiny? Should we be promoting some kind of civil war or violent regime change when the hardliners in control (the ‘79 revolutionists) are dying out and reformists and moderates beginning to slowly gain power? Hardliners have held (and still hold) an enormous amount of power since the revolution. But Khamenei is 78 and moderates/reformists are clearly in the majority now.

 

There are some countries and situations in the world where the US should understand by now meddling will only cause further problems. It takes a lot of hubris and ignorance to think we can provide any answers or solutions in the Middle East. Protect allies, support ME-based diplomacy, defend our interests? Sure - but any US intervention will likely pour as much gas on the situation as it would water.
There aren't a lot of people in Iran who have experienced positives from the US. Helping arm Iraq in the war? Propping up the totalitarian Shah regime? Sanctions? Just because a group of people want to reject the ruling establishment doesn't indicate they want to embrace the West.

 

What, exactly, would you have us do in Iran, YF?

We've been at war in the region since Desert Storm, GHW Bush. The Republicans seem to be ok with the Forever War, but the nation seems to have lost enthusiasm. Even if we assume that Iran's rulers don't roll the tanks and squash this revolution, Iran is a major power in the Middle East. We've been the Great Satan to generations of Iranian children now, explaining how we want to help believably won't be easy, particularly with Trump running off his mouth. It would be easy for U.S. involvement to set off all sorts of unintended consequences, particularly if we try to force things through militarily. It is not hard to project circumstances in which Iran winds up a ruined country similar to Syria's current status. There are any number of actors and interests who might get involved there, stirring the pot, sewing chaos, and quite literally throwing bombs.

Trump and Tillerson have done their best to gut the State Department. We're talking about a problem where the country would be best served by handling it diplomatically - but many of the old hands, the best and the brightest, have either been summarily fired or have lost heart at the changes inflicted on the State Department and left.

A major wild card is Saudi Arabia. Iran is their major rival. They have begun to become more overt in their actions in the region, both diplomatically and militarily. What happens if the new king there decides to take advantage of the situation? Realistically, if the Saudis decide not to do what we'd prefer, how much leverage do we truly have with them if they decide to push? How far do you see Trump pushing back on them?

So even assuming that we should try to help - and I agree that this might be an generational opportunity to effect a huge change in the Middle East (emphasis on the might), what do we do, and how do we trust the Trump team not to wind up leaving the U.S. looking like a monkey trying to fuck a football?

 

I suppose that’s why the vast majority of applications to my department’s masters/doctoral programs are from Iranian students.

 

Link? Is there anyone credible saying anything like this?

Also, while leftists see a dog whistle in every utterance from the right, you're obsession with using the term neocon has the ears of anti-Semites ringing every time you use it.

Can we start with voicing support for peaceful protesters, and putting an end to the normalizing of a violent, theocratic regime?

This is rich. Who are these moderates and reformists? What influence do they have? Can they run for elective office?

The constant desire to find moderates among Iran's mullas, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Islamic Brotherhood, Islamist Syrian rebels and others is lunacy.

It's incredible to me that the same folks who are certain that no "good people" attended a rally in Charlottesville are also convinced that their are moderates and reformers in Hezbollah, and in the repressive leadership of Iran.

Even more incredible is that the same folks who engineered our involvement in Syria and Libya, which led to civil war, massive civilian deaths, and the worst refugee crisis in modern history, have the gall to question any foreign policy decision.

Of course these are also the folks who were going to "reset" our relationship with Russia, and who thought Bashar al-Assad was a reformer.

 

Hey, @cranberry,

"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt."

 

But since Trumpists are purging the Foreign Service of lifelong diplomats, nobody is left to give insight to the POTUS - except Fox & Friends.