Running North Korea freakout thread

How soon we forget Chevy Chase's line from that all-time classic, "Spies Like Us": "So, do you want to go out with a bang?"

 

Next time I post a link, I suppose I should read beyond the headline.

But I was in a hurry because the story was so @Vombatus

 

Why would you @ yourself?

 

To see what would happen.

Sort of a Being John Malkovich moment. Wondered if I would open up a VB wormhole into me.

 

Here's a graphic chart:

 

I've been thinking more about this, and I just don't see how it tracks in helping the Trump administration meet its goal of preventing North Korea from developing nuclear weapons. Well, actually my understanding is that they already have nuclear weapons (depending on how you define them), so the admin's top goal is preventing NK from building a nuclear missile capable of striking the U.S. mainland.

– I don't think North Korea is talking to South Korea because it fears that the U.S. will punish them more harshly than ever if they are aggressive to South Korea, even in retaliation for a U.S. "bloody nose" preemptive attack. Rather, I think South Korea is talking to North Korea because Trump's policies and cage-rattling tactics have them understandably spooked, so they're no longer so confident that the U.S. has their back. This admin hasn't even named an ambassador to South Korea, and Trump has dinged the nation as both a candidate and while in office. And don't think they don't know that some U.S. military planners share the views expressed in a link from the OP – that we shouldn't let the fact that NK would retaliate against the South for a U.S. bombing deter us because, basically, the South Koreans "have it coming" for not being more prepared.

– Therefore it's the North that has the upper hand in any making-nice with the South, not vice versa. It gives North Korea a rare chance to look like an agreeable party, which could help loosen international resolve against it. This is NOT what the Trump administration wants, despite Trump taking credit for it recently (like he does with anything else, including planes not crashing). Consider this NYT story from Wednesday:

Olympic Detente Upends U.S. Strategy on North Korea

It's behind a paywall, but here's one key graph:

For the White House, however, the budding détente scrambles its strategy of pressuring the North, with sanctions and threats of military action, to give up its nuclear arsenal. This latest gesture of unity, the most dramatic in a decade, could add to fears in Washington that Pyongyang is making progress on a more far-reaching agenda.

– North and South Korea being civil – "a path toward cooperation" as heyabbot might call it – is indeed a good thing for helping lower the temperature in the region. However, it does zero to slow North Korea's nuclear program. It's not like South Korea is in some position to demand that. Instead, it could actually make Kim look more reasonable, which makes Trump look worse by comparison. Instead of it being the World (Led By The U.S.) vs. North Korea, the dynamic could shift to, for instance, China taking the lead on talks with North Korea, but looking out first and foremost for their interests (understandably), not ours. China would not lose that much sleep IMO if Kim developed the ability to strike the U.S. mainland, since they'd just as soon reduce U.S. influence on the region rather than increase it. Plus even if Kim pledged to stop his nuclear program as part of such a deal – which, to be clear, I think would be a non-starter for him – it's not hard to imagine China helping him evade the terms of the deal, just like they're helping him evade the current sanctions. And given that China's standing in the world is now greater than America's (thanks, Trump!), watching them take the lead on "solving" – or pretending to solve – the issue doesn't seem far-fetched, at least to me.

– Granted, the whole "China leading a North Korea deal" theory above is entirely made up by me, so feel free to dismiss. However, I'd like to see someone lay out a step-by-step scenario in which Trump's act-crazy-while-making-war-plans strategy pays off in making North Korea back off its nuclear ambitions. I'm not saying it's not possible, but I have yet to see a realistic strategy that achieves the stated goal (a full stop to North Korea's nuclear program) that doesn't involve military intervention.

– Longtime readers of the slumbering Politics thread may recall me babbling many months ago (late summer?) about a second-hand download of inside-admin scuttlebutt. One main news item was that Trump has long been convinced that "solving" North Korea will be his legacy. That scares me, frankly, because I think he will push things even harder. (And just to recap, some of the other highlights of that download were: 1) they weren't that worried about there being much to find on collusion; 2) they were very worried about there being much to find on Trump's business deals, money-laundering, etc.; 3) the dossier is largely true, including the more salacious parts (at least the prostitutes part, not sure about the golden shower specifically).)

Other links:

(From yesterday's NYT) : Trump Rebuked China for North Korea's Oil Smuggling. It's More Complicated

(From today's WashPo): Donald Trump is destroying the United States' standing in the world–and the dictators couldn't be happier

Money graph: Indeed, in a recently released Gallup survey of 134 countries, the world now prefers China as a global leader to the United States. Median global approval of U.S. leadership fell 18 percentage points in just one year, by far the largest single-year decline. The world’s view of U.S. leadership is lower now than it has been at any point in the history of that poll.

 

There is at least one Trump hotel/tower in SK.

 

I think we have the answer to "which building will Kim target first"

 

A never-before-seen look at the NK nuclear program:

 

Deliberate?

Emergency worker deliberately sent false Hawaii missile alert, believing attack was imminent, FCC says

 

Could be a traitor, unless he's a Republican.

 

OK, I'm freaked out again.

As noted, we still don't have an Ambassador to South Korea. Well, it seemed we had a guy lined up, and he had even been officially cleared by the South Koreans, who really wanted someone in place for the start of the Olympics on Feb. 9. But it now seems that the Trumpies aren't going to nominate him after all. The reason?

Disagreement on North Korea policy derails White House choice for ambassador to South Korea

For those who can't get behind the WaPo paywall, here's the lede:

The White House’s original choice for U.S. ambassador to South Korea is no longer expected to be nominated after he privately expressed disagreement in late December with the Trump administration’s North Korea policy, according to people familiar with the matter.


Victor D. Cha, an academic who served in the George W. Bush administration, raised his concerns with National Security Council officials over their consideration of a limited strike on the North aimed at sending a message without sparking a wider war — a risky concept known as a “bloody nose” strategy.

Longtime followers of this thread will recall that I am very much against the dangerous "bloody nose" strategy, since "limited" is likely to include significant South Korean casualties, for starters. This is another indication that the strategy is likely being very seriously considered as we speak – actually, as none of us speak about it.

Cha was an Asia hand at the National Security Council under W, and was generally considered hawkish on North Korea. But not hawkish enough for this administration, apparently. My sources (well, "source") indicates that other Republican Asia hands from the Bush years are "freaking out" over this news.

I will watch what Trump says tonight re: North Korea. You'd think he'd play it relatively cool given that he's trying to be a "uniter" (for one night only). But then again, he came out swinging on Kim at the U.N.

I don't think anyone's going to try to bloody anyone's nose tonight or this week. Rather, my hunch is that North Korea will play it cool during the Olympics, soaking up some rare good international pub for their "unified team." Then sometime after that, they will want to flex their muscle with a provocative test. And then we will see what happens. I am concerned. And not in a troll-y way.