Offseason baseball Thread

Maybe, but there are also an awful lot of disincentives/penalties for teams to spend money on salaries in the current CBA. The players union gave away long-term financial gains (an increase in revenue percentage earmarked for salaries) in favor of short-term creature comforts (chefs in the clubhouse, more off days during the season).

The owners have been trying to walk back free agency ever since it was granted in the mid-1970s. And by putting in things like the luxury tax for highest salaried teams and draft-pick penalties for teams signing top-end free agents, they're making incremental gains in that direction.

 

I don't disagree with your point about the players union, but that doesn't really have anything to do with the lack of spending this offseason. The luxury tax has been in effect since 2002, and compensatory picks have been around awhile, too. Nothing has changed this year that would curb team spending.

Nobody wants to give 30-year-old JD Martinez, who can't field the baseball, $30M/year for seven years when 25-year-olds like Harper and Machado are going to be available next year.

 

Where did this idea that Martinez can't field come from? He's not a defensive asset like Machado or Harper, but he isn't a DH. He has only appeared as a DH in a game 38 times in his career.

 

Say what? A new CBA went into effect that dramatically changed the landscape.

 

His career dWAR (for whatever it's worth) is -60.5. The guy's not a good fielder.

 

CBA went into effect in December 2016.

 

That's after free agency began (and for the most part ended) last year.

This is the first full off-season with this system.

 

It was before the Winter Meetings. Of the 393 players who signed free agent contracts in 2016-17, 329 were signed the day the CBA went into effect or later. Cespedes was about the only player of note who was signed before it went into effect. Chapman, Jansen, Turner, Desmond, Encarnacion, Bautista all got signed afterward.

 

Even the most passionate supporters of sabermetrics will tell you that defensive metrics are flawed at best, so you'll pardon me if I don't take that bit too seriously.

I have no problem with the argument that Martinez is a below-average fielder, but he can play the outfield full time. He's not a guy who has to be a DH. I keep seeing it suggested otherwise in the discussions of his free agent value.

Of course, he's not as valuable as Machado or Harper, but only one team is going to get each of those guys and you aren't getting either one right now without giving up players as well as money.

 

Here are just two of the many many columns written about the "new" system.

From SI Breaking down MLB's complicated new free agent compensation

The previously linked great one from Passan Here's why baseball's economic system might be broken

It was a huge change in the operating procedures. In any business, that will take 6-12 months to fully analyze and apply to new business. The idea that this is happening in the same old system we've always had is silly.

 

I wasn't suggesting he has to be a full-time DH, although given the length of his contract demands, he will have to become one at some point - his defense isn't going to get better in his age 35 and 36 seasons. I'm just saying that teams are looking the calculus of paying a 30-year-old who is a below-average fielder $30M/year for seven years vs. waiting a year to try to land guys like Harper and Machado, who are younger, better fielders and better hitters.

 

Keith Law's write-up on him was this: "If all Martinez ever had to do was hit -- never field, never run, never go anywhere but to and from the batter's box -- he might be a six-win player and the best free agent on the market. Martinez, who remade his swing after the Astros released him in March 2014, has become a fairly patient hitter who makes consistently high-quality contact."

I was always under the impression that while Martinez can stand at first or in left field with a glove, you don't ever really want him out there. Are there some positive reports out there on his defense? He's also heading into his 30s, so becoming DH-only would likely be the best way to preserve his health and keep that bat in the lineup.