Running North Korea freakout thread

That does put a fine point on it, yes

 

[NOTE: Moving this here from the Politics thread. There was some more back and forth after this, and there's also naturally some discussion on the Olympic thread, but I wanted to try to keep an archive on this topic on this thread.]

I agree that this Olympic rapprochement between the two Koreas at least temporarily lowers the heat on the Korean peninsula, and that is a good thing. However NK hasn't had to give up anything in order to do so. They certainly aren't taking any steps to "stopping this nuclear shit," which the Trump admin has stated is an absolute necessity that they have strongly implied (at the minimum) they will use military intervention to enforce.

Instead, NK is so far waging – and winning – a PR battle that is indeed driving a bit of a wedge between SK and the U.S., and will also make it harder for the U.S. to rally the international community to impose and actually abide by stronger sanctions. Rather, Pence, and by extension the Trump admin, is coming off as petulant and petty. First he and Mother refuse to stand and applaud for the unified Korean team during the Opening Ceremonies, despite his supposed outrage at political statements during sporting events and the "not clapping when everyone else is is treasonous" trope. Then at a dinner hosted by the SK president for the NK delegation, Pence shows up late, refuses to look at the NK delegation, and leaves within five minutes. That's diplomacy as conducted by a teenage girl. It's also absolutely insulting to our SK hosts.

Pence can make all the statements he wants about how NK's antics aren't doing anything to create any space between the U.S. and SK, but his actions are doing exactly that. And a lot of the rest of the world is looking at these Olympics and thinking, "Man, NK doesn't seem so bad, and Kim's sister is perfectly nice. But that white-haired, sourpuss American is a meanie. Wait, so which country is the bad guy again?"

Is it largely a PR battle? Of course. Is Pence worse than NK? Of course not. But perception matters.

And after the Olympics, I would suspect NK will be emboldened in its nuclear program, not inhibited. I bet it's going to be feeling its oats and will try to push the envelope with a provocative test. Then we'll see how the Trump admin responds. But it will likely do so from a weaker position diplomatically, which makes its military options – notably the "bloody nose" – look all the more appealing.

 

In other words, Kim Jong-Un is a better politician and leader than Donald J Trump. Low bar, but still ...

 

See - I think South Korea knows exactly what its doing. They're not dumb, they've been living with this for 70 years. North Korea gets cranky. North Korea plays nice. It probably means they are desperate for food, like the neer do well relative who only comes around when they need money. And sure, it's easy for the US to take a hard line an ocean away.
So sure, North Korea is going to come in, act like everything's cool and try and get people to wonder "why is everyone down on NK? They seem so nice?" If you're South Korea, you welcome NK, you show them the benefits of not being hermits, you try and get them to open the door a little wider. Yes, people might want to know why they're being treated so well given their history of human rights abuses - I figure it's geopolitical good cop/bad cop.

 

It seems like a shame to not be able to talk about something so important as Trump accepting a sitdown with Kim. So I’d like to try, but obviously, it’s the moddys’ call.

Here are a few of my thoughts:

– Overall, I much prefer talks to the “bloody nose” targeted strike military approach, which Lindsey Graham (in a little-noticed interview a week or two ago) put the odds of at 30%, going up to 70% if Kim had another major test. So for the near-term, this is definitely far preferable. South Korea and North Korea are meeting again in April, and Trump and Kim are tentatively scheduled for May, with Kim promising no tests until then. So that does ratchet down the heat on the Korean Peninsula.

– Trump definitely deserves some credit IMO for the above development. I don’t think he scared Kim, but the blockade and sanctions do seem to be squeezing NK. And I think Trump definitely scared South Korea, and they’re the ones who have been playing the conciliator and reaching out. But I fear they’re in a position of weakness to Kim.

– Trump clearly didn't think this through. His staff was blindsided by his decision, and would have advised against it. It seems he wants to turn the page by doing dramatic things to get out of the administration’s funk, so it was tariffs followed by this big announcement.

– Again, Trump wants to do something that he thinks previous presidents couldn’t do. But previous presidents could certainly have sat down with one of the Kims; the Kims have been trying to do that for decades. It was all about the terms of meeting.

– The U.S. has been saying that a pre-condition of any talks would be NK taking concrete steps to denuclearize before meeting. But Kim just got a sitdown that elevates him in the eyes of the world as an equal of the U.S. president without doing any such thing. Trump is saying that the South Koreans said Kim “talked about denuclearization.” That’s like a bad game of telephone. Kim has gotten his summit without promising anything more than not having any new tests for two months. That’s a huge win for Kim.

– I think Kim is far savvier than Trump, so I worry about what Trump will give away in the room. We’ve seen repeatedly that he will say pretty much whatever comes into his mind at the moment. He can walk things back domestically when his retreat is aided and abetted by the GOP, but that’s not so easy in a major summit like this. Kim will kiss his ass, and Trump will eat it up. I think this summit will end up helping Kim and NK more than the U.S. Kim could conceivably get the blockade lifted while simply buying himself time to keep working on his nuclear program. Which make no mistake, they are doing as we speak.

Overall, I am cautiously optimistic that this is a positive development, and I think it’s a clear positive for the next few months. But given who Trump is, I’m more cautious than optimistic in the longer term.

I wonder what other folks think.

 

This.

 

If I had to bet, I'd say this meeting never takes place.

 

Remember when Obama was compared to Neville Chamberlain for talking with Iran? How does that square with President MAGA heading over there for a photo op with Kim?

 

Bets on whether anyone in the administration knows DPRK still holds three US prisoners?

Might have wanted to leverage that before agreeing to a meeting.

 

I am not going to criticize Trump for seeking negotiations, because it's the right thing to do no matter who's President. I am perturbed by his rather odd definition of negotiating, namely, to agree with whoever's in the room with him last. It's one thing to go back on statements on domestic policy. In diplomacy, the no backsies rule applies.

 

Very possible. Off the top of my head, I'd say 60/40 they meet by July 4th. But who knows.

 

We'd be better off sending Rodman.