2018 NFL off-season thread: Mr. Alex Smith goes to Washington

[LongTimeListener]

Tebow, Trubisky, Lynch, EJ Manuel, JP Losman, Patrick Ramsey - those are just the first rounders.

I think the salary certainty of first round picks has encouraged teams to take "flyers" on players who may hit or not. Before the Bradford deal, I think teams were more cautious in using first round picks on QBs.

The consensus opinion was that the GM forked up and those guys couldn't play?

Tebow yes. I don't recall it on the other ones. Of course ***some*** people thought that, but ***some*** people think everything.

Here's one contrary example to your list.

Why E.J. Manuel Was the Best Pick in the 2013 NFL Draft

There's also the matter of where those guys went. Losman and Ramsey were in situations where no quarterback could develop. If Alex Smith had called it quits at the same point in his career, he'd be the league's all-time bust.

Trubisky looks like he has something going. Lynch has been injured too much to say really.

 

[PCLoadLetter]

I think part of the problem is that scouts and GMs get infatuated with guys who look like QBs even if they can't play. I saw Jake Locker and Brock Osweiler all through their college careers and thought they both sucked. They looked the part, though.

This year's version is Josh Allen. I didn't see him much, but I came away totally unimpressed in the games I did see.

 

[amraeder]

The consensus opinion was that the GM forked up and those guys couldn't play?

Tebow yes. I don't recall it on the other ones. Of course ***some*** people thought that, but ***some*** people think everything.

Here's one contrary example to your list.

Why E.J. Manuel Was the Best Pick in the 2013 NFL Draft

There's also the matter of where those guys went. Losman and Ramsey were in situations where no quarterback could develop. If Alex Smith had called it quits at the same point in his career, he'd be the league's all-time bust.

Trubisky looks like he has something going. Lynch has been injured too much to say really.

FWIW, I do think the Manuel pick was fairly widely panned at the time, if memory serves.

Kiper gave the Bills a "D" for value. Unsurprisingly, quarterback E.J. Manuel was the sticking point. Kiper liked the move to trade down in the first round, but still didn't think Manuel was worth the No. 16 overall pick:

"The bad is I just think the No. 16 pick was way too high for EJ Manuel. For me, there's simply too much projection here. He needs to prove that he's capable of getting through progressions quicker and getting the ball out. He was my No. 6-ranked QB"

Buffalo Bills
Floyd Engel: (D) I read a review of them that said "aside from the questionable (E.J.) Manuel pick." There is no aside. When your first-round pick is used on a questionable QB in a draft short on them, you failed

Like you said, some people think everything, but I do think the balance was on the negative side for Manuel.

 

[amraeder]

Can't remember if the Jake Locker pick was widely panned, or I just think it was because I didn't like it at the time.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

Can't remember if the Jake Locker pick was widely panned, or I just think it was because I didn't like it at the time.

As I remember it was seen as a reach, but not panned so much as seen as a high-risk, but possible high-reward pick. Injury risk was presciently noted by many.

 

[DanOregon]

I remember someone said they figured the Bills were checking on Manuel because they were looking for a back-up QB and never figured they draft him in the first round.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

The one really good thing I took from the Barnwell article was his documentation of how often there really are no quarterbacks in the draft worth a fourth round pick. About half the time. Alas, there are always about the same number of teams each year who need a quarterback. Miscalculations follow as night follows day.

 

[LanceyHoward]

I think part of the problem is that scouts and GMs get infatuated with guys who look like QBs even if they can't play. I saw Jake Locker and Brock Osweiler all through their college careers and thought they both sucked. They looked the part, though.

This year's version is Josh Allen. I didn't see him much, but I came away totally unimpressed in the games I did see.

The year before Bill Walsh went back to the 49'ers as GM he had a column in the Sporting News. He said the mistake many scouts make is that they fall in love with a big QB with a rocket arm. But he said arm strength is a threshold skill. PEople watch then in practice and are awed. But an NFL QB rarely gets to drop back and throw into a clean pocket and throw precisely on rhythm. Instead they have to shuffle their feet a lot and then quickly set themselves to throw accurately. Many of the big QB's do not have the sense of balance to accomplish that. In the column he specifically called out Jim Druckenmiller as an example of a big quarterback who looked great throwing in shorts but would be an NFL bust.

When I see Allen I think of Druckenmiller.

 

[justgladtobehere]

Akili Smith?

 

[Michael_ Gee]

The year before Bill Walsh went back to the 49'ers as GM he had a column in the Sporting News. He said the mistake many scouts make is that they fall in love with a big QB with a rocket arm. But he said arm strength is a threshold skill. PEople watch then in practice and are awed. But an NFL QB rarely gets to drop back and throw into a clean pocket and throw precisely on rhythm. Instead they have to shuffle their feet a lot and then quickly set themselves to throw accurately. Many of the big QB's do not have the sense of balance to accomplish that. In the column he specifically called out Jim Druckenmiller as an example of a big quarterback who looked great throwing in shorts but would be an NFL bust.

When I see Allen I think of Druckenmiller.

Didn't the 49ers draft Druckenmiller?

 

[PCLoadLetter]

Akili Smith?

I saw every game he played in college. Never understood why he went that high in the draft.

 

[Big Circus]

Didn't the 49ers draft Druckenmiller?

They did. End of the first, IIRC. He didn't last long in the league.