2018 NFL off-season thread: Mr. Alex Smith goes to Washington

Barnwell: Why drafting a QB is often a disaster ... and what that means for 2018

 

Here's one reason I don't like Barnwell. This graf:

As a result, the range of opinions -- anonymous and otherwise -- we hear about these players before they enter the league is truly remarkable. The error bars are impossibly large. Ask around about Wyoming quarterback Josh Allenand you'll hear that he'll turn into budding MVP candidate Carson Wentz or Titans washout Jake Locker. You'll hear that Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield will turn into either Johnny Manziel or Russell Wilson. This doesn't happen in other sports. Jaylen Brown didn't enter the NBA draft only to be compared to both Jimmy Butler and Bill Murray in "Space Jam."

First, of course it happens in other sports. People talk about boom/bust qualities often in the NBA. Of course someone has been compared to Kwame Brown or Darko or Michael Olowokandi or Sam Bowie over the years. The hell is Barnwell talking about?

Second, Bill Murray from Space Jam isn't a real person. What kind of analogy is that? Jake Locker wasn't a fictional character, he was a guy who started 23 games and then retired.

 

I thought this graf was the meat of today's article:
"Thirteen quarterbacks have been drafted since the league went to a new rookie scale in 2011, and of those 13, just four -- Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Carson Wentz and Patrick Mahomes -- have held on to their coach for the first four years of their careers. Even that number is generous, given that Luck lost interim coach Bruce Arians after one season once Chuck Pagano returned, while Wentz is only two years into his career and Mahomes just finished his debut campaign." (And Wentz and Mahomes are only in years 3 and 2 respectively).

There aren't many QBs who have survived two coaching changes with their starting jobs, Stafford and Rivers and now Mariotta.

 

????????

 

The parentheses was mine. I figure he was saying a team will hire a coach who will then draft "his" QB and when fortunes don't turn, he's out the door and you get a new coach and the QB is no longer "his guy."

 

Who is going to tell @DanOregon?

 

Mel Kiper's last day is today:

Eight years ago, Mel Kiper said he’d retire in 2018 if Jimmy Clausen wasn’t a successful NFL QB – well, here we are…

 

Teams that draft a QB in the first round usually aren't very good, so they're more likely to change coaches and assistant coaches while the QB is in his first couple years as a pro. Part of the deal. There's also a chicken-egg thing going here. If the coach was wrong about the QB, he's really likely to get fired, so then the kid gets a second coach. The change isn't why he doesn't improve, he is. I really don't think Barnwell did much to demonstrate a reason why it's hard to draft QBs beyond the fact it is hard, just like it is for the other players. The only difference is, it's easier for fans to see if a QB can't play than it is to see how a linebacker or guard is failing.

 

Good points. The surest sign of a successful team is how long the coach and QB have been together. I can't help but think how many past QBs have made the blowhards we hear on TV look bad (Clausen et. al).
GM-Coach-QB has to be a situation where everyone is on the same page. The roster is stocked with players for the coach's system, the system complements and maximizes the QBs abilities.
I do wonder how many of the first rounders who "failed" might have been big successes on other teams or in other situations.

 

I've always been a fan of Football Outsider's QB projection stuff, which heavily weighs games played and completion percentage. But, it's definitely not perfect, and I think it's more useful identifying players that clearly have a high bust potential. (This year, it really fucking hates Allen, and he strikes me as the "we're not selling jeans here" player of the draft.) To cherry-pick one year, 2012 wasn't bad: FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Lewin Career Forecast 2012 - But it's not like it took a rocket scientist to identify Luck and RG3 as stellar pro prospects.

 

Yeah, right before Walsh went back on their payroll. I remember reading the column and being surprised that Walsh was so vocal in his criticism of Druckenmiller. Upon his return Walsh immediately cut him.

 

Walter Jones is a Hall of Famer. Trevor Pryce went to four Pro Bowls. Warrick Dunn ran for nearly 11,000 yards and is 22nd on the all-time rushing list

James Farrior, Shawn Springs and Antowain Smith were very good players.

There were some dreck players (Jon Harris played just two seasons after being drafted by the Eagles, 18 career catches for Yatil Green with the Dolphins) but it's not like 30 teams drafted fuck-ups.

The year absolutely sucked for quarterbacks. Other than Jake Plummer, the most productive QBs drafted were Danny Wuerffel and Koy Detmer.