MLB 2018 regular season thread

All they need to do is bring in Downtown Julie Brown to pump wOBA ...

"wOBA wOBA wOBA!"

 

In case anybody missed it, Chris Archer turned in yet another short, ineffective start for the Pirates Friday. He lasted only five innings and gave up four earned runs. He has a 5.49 ERA since the Pirates overpaid the Rays for his services, failing to go more than five innings in all but two starts. The longest he has lasted was six innings.

Gregory Polanco also underwent surgery on his shoulder this week and he is expected to miss seven-to-nine months, so he won't be ready for the start of the 2019 season. Even when he does return, it is likely to take his power a while to return. It sure would be nice to plug in a top-level talent like Austin Meadows, but he was part of that high price for Archer, whose largest appeal was the team-friendly contract.

The other player they acquired around that time, Keone Kela, has been shut down, citing "workload reasons."

If only they had a pitching ace all season to help them stay in contention. I wonder what happened to that guy?

 

Every Indians starter (except the pitcher) has an RBI.

It's the third inning.

 

He's just competing.

 

Bad news for the Rockies as they chase their first division title

Trevor Story "Facing Potential UCL Damage"

 

Well now he'll never win the MVP!

Speaking of award talk, in the month since @bigpern23 and I went around and around, Dereck Rodriguez's "mirage" of an ERA has indeed gone up -- from 2.25 to 2.30. I assume his xFIP is still bad because he just won't fucking give it up and get around to allowing the home runs we all know he should (2 in 29 IP since then). He won't win ROY, it will be Acuna or Soto, but I do enjoy any chance I can get to laugh at xFIP.

 

The MVP campaign is back on. The article states that Bud Black tells reporters that Story’s MRI did not show any structural damage, and his ulnar collateral ligament is intact

Trevor Story "Facing Potential UCL Damage"

 

Eleven of his 16 starts have come at one of the best pitchers' parks in baseball and opponents have a .224 BABIP against him there. Unsurprisingly, it's .301 against him on the road. And since you and I went around and around, he's had exactly one road start.

The results are the results and he's had a fine season. He was never in contention for ROY. There's no shame in that given what Acuna and Soto are doing.

You still don't have a fundamental understanding of how xFIP is used, and that's OK. If you want to look at his shiny 2.30 ERA and believe Dereck Rodriguez is somehow comparable to Scherzer, you're welcome to do so.

 

That's a bit more measured than the way you came into that discussion:

I guess you're right. He has gone up by 0.05. He'd be second in the league now BTW.

He allows a home run every 71 PAs at home.

He allows a home run every 81 PAs on the road.

I don't expect him to keep a 2.30 ERA (nor a 3.6% FB/HR)for his entire career, no. But just because the average is 10% doesn't mean every pitcher is going to get to 10%.

 

I stand by the statement that his ERA is a mirage and it won't last, though obviously, it's a pretty sure bet that it will remain under 2.50 for the rest of this season. I got that one wrong, no doubt. I figured he'd finish somewhere in the low 3s.

But again, you point to where he would rank if he had the innings to qualify while at the same time laughing at the assumptions made by xFIP. That doesn't make much sense to me.

No, not every pitcher will get to 10 percent, but 3.6 percent is absurdly low. That number is going to normalize, and with it, his ERA will too.

I don't think it's a coincidence that guys who have pitched thousands of innings such as Scherzer, Verlander, Kershaw, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, etc., have an ERA within a half run or closer of their FIP and xFIP.

 

Sure, but that’s because their HR/FB % went way up at the end. That isn’t normalizing. That’s getting old and sucking.

Kershaw’s ERA and xFIP almost never were that close in his prime. The difference was often near or more than a run. That happened for six or eight years. Then last year his HR rate spiked. And that’s because he isn’t as good of a pitcher as he was three or five years ago.