NFL Week 11 Running Thread: Chiefs-Rams Going Back to Cali

That was a damn fun game. I love defense, but I’ll stand down on that.

Rare when the game exceeds the hype.

 

What is your beef with Reid in this one?

 

McVay blew his timeouts needlessly but he is playing 3-D chess to Reid’s Chutes and Ladders.

47-44 Rams. 3:05. Chiefs 1st and 10 at the LA 23. Rams have no timeouts. Your defense has given up 33 points and gotten 7 back — so they’re not terrible. Still, do you trust your Chiefs defense for one more stop?

At this point, they needed to get ten yards in the middle of the field for a first down while running down the clock. They needed this MORE than a TD to go up 51-47 with 2:30 left. They needed points, yes, but they really needed to score last.

The ideal plan:
Get 5-8 yards on 1st down. Stay in-bounds. That takes you to 2:20.
Now you have two plays to get the first down between the goal line and the LA 12. 2 minute warning.

2:00. At that point. Simple running play. If the Rams want you to score (I would if I’m McVay, don’t do it. Go down at the 1.).

1:20. Second and goal. Another running play. Take a time out at :35.

0:35. Third and goal. Now go for the touchdown. If you don’t get it, kick the field goal.

What happened:
Pass to Harris. First down. Rams get a personal foul which stops the clock AND makes it first and goal. Oddly brilliant - intentional or not.

(Tangent: can you decline a personal foul penalty?)

At this point, the Rams locked the Chiefs into a maximum of four downs. Brilliant.

2:55 left. Run the ball! That takes you to 2:15 - likely not the 2 minute break.

2:00. Third down. Let Mahomes float. If there is a TD, get it. If not, give yourself up and let the clock bleed down to 1:10. Kick tying field goal with 1:05.

OR... if you’re inside the Rams 4, go for it. Get the TD to go up four with 1:00 left against a team with no timeouts is a good bet.

If you don’t get it, you still have three timeouts for a stop.

The Rams only had one way to escape that (barring a turnover). Cut down the maximum plays the Chiefs could have. And they did it.

These are billion dollar corporations and I bet Jedd Fisch as clock management specialist for the Rams was the difference

 

If they lost to the Saints, but won the other five remaining games, including beating New England, the Steelers would get the bye no matter what the Patriots do the rest of the way. It's not happening. The Steelers have improved a great deal as the season has gone on, but I'd be very surprised if they beat the Saints or the Patriots. I wouldn't be shocked if Pittsburgh lost its game in Denver next week.

 

They got the ball back twice with a chance to score and Mahomes threw two picks. You can’t blame Reid for scoring in that situation.

McVays play calling at the end of the game was awful. They have the best back in the league and dont run it and force the Chuefs to use their timeouts.

 

It's a pretty unusual game where the final score is 54-51 and the player who most blew my mind was a defensive lineman, but Donald is just that good.

 

I didn't watch until the end, but that Chiefs left tackle was not having a good night. Not sure anyone would have had one against Donald. He was impressive.

 

My overall point.

When you have teams with offenses like this in 2018 -- it's a different NFL. You have to think about, not just scoring, but making sure that you're scoring last -- or with :30 left on the clock.

The Rams gave KC a HUGE tactical advantage by burning through all of their second-half timeouts.

In a situation like this, you have to reverse engineer the win. Not just scoring points. Put your best asset on the field (offense) and keep it there. Avoid your weakest (defense).

3:05 left. Kansas City could have bled the clock down. At the absolute worst (assuming no fumbled run or exchange or holding penalties), the Chiefs kick the game-tying field goal with 1:15 left. Not ideal but a situation where three stops, in-bounds, before the Chiefs' 40-yard line likely preserves the tie.

Which of the plausible scenarios would put KC in the best position to win:
1) Down 47-44, 2:00, 3rd and 6 from the Rams 17.
2) Up 51-47, 2:45 left, Rams ball anywhere on the field.
3) Down 47-44, 1:15 left, 2nd and goal from the Rams 8.
4) Down 47-44, :35 left, 3rd and goal from the Rams 4.

Of these four, only #2 scares the shit out of me.

In this era where yards are cheap and PI calls are rampant, why risk it with that defense? That's why, three times this year, we've said, "shit, they scored too early". If Keenum could hit an open receiver, the Chiefs would have lost all three.

Tangent: If a team cannot decline a personal foul penalty, that is something that a sharp coach could definitely exploit. The PF foul then maxed out the Chiefs on four plays on the go-ahead drive. Brilliant.

 

The Jaguars seemed to be pulling something similar at the end of Sunday's game against the Steelers. Pittsburgh ran a play from just inside the two with about 15 seconds left. It looked like every defender was holding the receiver he covered. Roethlisberger ended up throwing the ball away. The holding penalty got the Steelers less than a yard and the play burned seven seconds.

 

I got irritated with "Tess, Whit and Boog" and the end with McVay's play calling. They didn't like that the Rams didn't run the ball out three straight times. To me, its one of those things I always see with the losing manager in the World Series:

"You know that thing you did, that didn't work? You should have done the other thing".

If Gurley runs 3 straight times, and they don't make the first, the criticism would have been "Why did you get conservative all the sudden??"

btw, I think that something wasn't right about Gurley. He went down in a horsecollar-type tackle in the first series in the game, in the game, and man they barely used him in the first half. He really wasn't effective the whole game. He had one run for 20 yards when the seas parted for him, but otherwise didn't do much.